One of the Government's defences against repealing Labour's "world-first" smokefree laws has been described as "based on anecdote" by experts after an analysis of police data.
The Government is repealing a law passed by the previous Labour Government which would create a sinking lid on the tobacco purchasing age, reduce tobacco retailers from 6000 to 600, and greatly reduce nicotine from cigarettes. While the changes were passed, they have not yet come into effect.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has previously argued the changes would create a black market for tobacco products and make tobacco retailers a target for crime and ram-raids.
But a new briefing from a trio of University of Otago public health researchers analysed police data on ram-raids and found tobacco is only targeted in about a quarter of cases.
It's a trio led by University of Otago public health professor Janet Hoek, who has previously been outspoken on the Government's smokefree law change rollback.
The briefing stated that Government spokespeople had "failed to provide either evidence or logic to justify the repeal of world-leading smokefree legislation".
"Instead, they have claimed that reducing retailer numbers will greatly increase crime, particularly ram raids targeting tobacco products, a claim based on anecdote."
Police data obtained by the researchers included a scanning report on 283 ram raids between November 2020 and October 2021.
The briefing said that showed money and the cash till were the most frequently stolen items in ram-raids, with almost a quarter (24%) targeting cigarettes and tobacco. However only 14% of all ram-raids successfully saw those items stolen.
"In summary, analysis of data rather than anecdotes shows ram raids are decreasing and that most involve theft of products other than tobacco."
Labour health spokesperson Dr Ayesha Verrall claimed the Government was "using tobacco company talking points" and should make better decisions for the good of the community.
“The evidence overwhelmingly shows smoking kills, and the Coalition Government’s decisions will see more lives lost."
She referenced a 1News Verian poll, released on Sunday, which showed 60% of voters were opposed to the Government's plans to roll back the Smokefree legislation. Some supported the Government's changes - 30% - while 10% did not know or refused to answer.
On Monday, 1News asked Luxon if he stood by his position that Labour's law changes, if implemented, would contribute to crime and ram raids.
He said the Government wasn't changing anything but "going back to the legislation that's delivered a huge decrease in smoking in New Zealand".
Asked what the argument was based on, he said limiting distribution made tobacco retailers "more of a target for criminal activity" and "drives into a black market", which was some of the advice provided to the previous government.
He said the previous legislation had delivered a drastic drop in smokers and that was something to be proud of.
Luxon said it was "an absolute load of rubbish" that the Government was using tobacco company spin to defend its policy.
"We're focused on outcomes, we want to see smoking rates lowered here in New Zealand."
Associate Health Minister Casey Costello, who is in charge of the repeal programme, said the Government's policies were "based on what works and what has been proven to work in the real world".
"The rate of decline of smoking in New Zealand is better than in any other developed country."
She said New Zealand had rapidly falling smoking rates, with 305,000 quitting in the last four years. That was "in large part" due to vaping as an accessible alternative, she said.
Young New Zealanders were also turning down the smokes, she said, with the daily smoking rate among 15 to 24-year-olds at 3%.
“What we are doing with our Smokefree Amendment Bill is maintaining the regulatory environment that has seen this progress, and our commitment is to continue to provide the programmes and tools that will help people quit and reduce the harm from smoking.
“I will soon be taking a package of measures to Cabinet to increase the tools available to help people quit smoking, while at the same time tightening regulations on vaping to prevent young people accessing vapes.
“Its important people know that we are not removing any tobacco reduction initiatives that currently exist. Labour’s untested proposals were not in place and the ‘Smokefree generation’ measure wasn’t to take effect until 2027."
She said Labour's proposals were based on modelling using data from 2019 and 2020 and ignored "all of the progress that has been made in the last four years and the fact smoking rates have fallen from 11.9% then to 6.8% now".
“We are not taking an ideological approach to this. This Government is committed to the Smokefree 2025 targets and having practical tools and support for smokers to help them quit and to reduce smoking.”
On Breakfast today, Costello said she was aiming to have less than 5% of Kiwis indulging in the habit.
As part of this, Costello told Breakfast this morning she would "tighten up" regulations around vaping.
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