An expert on international relations and Russia has warned Vladimir Putin’s army has regrouped and is now making progress again in their invasion of Ukraine.
However, speaking to Q+A with Jack Tame, Massey University professor Rouben Azizian said territory won and lost isn’t the only relevant measure for success in the war.
The war has now ground on for two years, following the multi-pronged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
While there have been periods of ascendancy for Ukraine during that time in which territory has been retaken, the most recent battles have ended in defeats and withdrawals by Ukrainian forces, particularly around the town of Avdiivka.
“It’s never good to underestimate, and I think we underestimated the Ukrainians and then later underestimated the Russians,” said Azizian.
He said that has left both sides in a position similar to a stalemate, but that term isn’t quite accurate because both sides still want to keep fighting and see opportunities to make gains.
“There is a very exhausting fight going on for every inch of territory, there the Russians seem to be prevailing, and taking over Avdiivka is important because it allows them to move forward,” said Azizian.
“But at the same time, Russia has been losing their Black Sea fleet, they’re losing some very precious aircraft. And very importantly, Russian territories are under attack.”
“It’s not just about territory. It’s about survival of a nation, Mr Putin’s imperial ambitions, so it’s not only fought in land area – it’s fought everywhere. Psychologically and in the minds of people as well.”
Azizian is a fluent speaker of Russian and a former member of the Russian foreign service, and said the Russian public are largely uninformed about the course of the war.
He said polls had shown about 50% of Russians don’t follow news from the frontlines, and “many Russians don’t even know what’s happening in the country.”
“We see growing discontent,” said Azizian, citing movements made up of soldiers' wives, and two disqualified candidates with some popular support in the upcoming presidential election were in favour of stopping the war.
Putin will face elections next month, though is widely expected to win comfortably due to a combination of popular support and authoritarian control of the electoral process.
Azizian said a significant chunk of the Russian public remains “hawkish” and in favour of continuing the war.
Overnight, the USA announced new rounds of sanctions, which Azizian said to date there is little evidence of working.
That is because “the Russian government has gotten very good at avoiding sanctions,” but also, support has continued to flow from friendly governments like China and North Korea.
New Zealand’s government recently made a fresh commitment of support, with defence minister Judith Collins and foreign minister Winston Peters signing off on a $26 million package.
“It demonstrates New Zealand’s unwavering support for Ukraine, and our serious commitment to defending an international rules-based system that reflects our values and supports our interests,” said Peters.
That package brought New Zealand’s total contribution to Ukraine’s cause to $100 million, and included money to purchase weapons, humanitarian aid, and a contribution to reconstruction funds.
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand on Air
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