There is just under 12 months before the electricity contract ends for Tiwai Point aluminium smelter in the deep south.
Southlanders have been waiting to find out whether the Rio Tinto-owned business will confirm plans for a "long-term future" after previous plans to potentially mothball operations three years ago.
"Should we lose Tiwai, it will be devastating for our region," said Southland Business Chamber chief executive Sheree Carey.
"December's not that far away — 2024 is really the year that's going to define Southland's economy for the next 30 years," she said.
Businesses in the south want certainty over the smelter as it plays a pivotal role in the region's economy.
Helter-skelter on future
The Tiwai Point smelter has had an on again, off again future for years now.
It uses more than 10% of the country's electricity — mainly from the Manapouri hydro power station in the Fiordland National Park.
The last National government gave the company a $30m lifeline more than a decade ago but that same government said there would be no more.
Labour's Finance Minister in 2020, Grant Robertson, told 1News too, "there would be no further government subsides".
1News received a statement from the smelter which said it was "focused on securing a future for the smelter beyond 2024" but admitted challenges to secure an "electricity supply that will see a long term future for the NZAS smelter at Tiwai, are complex, and are ongoing".
"We want to secure a commercial outcome that allows the smelter to be sustainable throughout the commodity cycle, drives investment in new renewable generation and plays its part in the broader energy market by providing more flexible demand response when needed," a spokesperson said.
"We are conscious that our employees, Southland and the energy markets are all looking for certainty, and we are working as quickly as we can and will announce an outcome as soon as we can."
Not just waiting for an outcome
In the meantime, Southland has been busy coming up with replacement industries — should a new contract not be reached.
The big ticket opportunities included: Green hydrogen; data centres; aquaculture; diversifying current trade industries; or pushing a new start-up.
While these plans are well and truly in the pipeline, they will not all be ready by the end of December this year.
"They're all sitting there... nothing's been confirmed," Carey said.
Government funding has gone to engineering firms that will be impacted by closure, developing a "cluster" support group to come up with new ideas for the sector.
The cluster would look at attracting new local, national and international contracts while also looking at sustainability.
Chris Hughes from the Southland Engineering and Manufacturing Cluster said: "You know, we'd like some clarity sooner rather than later."
"We're all planning for the smelter to stay but we're also planning... what if it doesn't?"
The clock is ticking.
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