Analysis: David Seymour has a huge challenge proving his Treaty Principles Bill isn’t doomed from the start, writes Q+A presenter Jack Tame.
It will take a gargantuan political shift for the Government’s Treaty Principles Bill to pass into law.
After his careful appearance at Waitangi this week, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has made his opposition to the bill plainer than ever.
“It’s not something we support at all,” he said on Wednesday.
Gone are any real efforts to appease ACT by intimating National will enter the debate in good faith.
“The reality is we won’t be supporting it beyond [the select committee stage],” Luxon said.
National’s approach and the Prime Minister’s stark language is certainly not consistent with what ACT leader David Seymour promised his supporters during the election campaign.
Seymour insisted a referendum on the Treaty principles was a bottom line for ACT’s support in a coalition government.
He has settled for much less: a token debate which he will front, but which neither of his coalition partners intends to meaningfully engage with or support.
So far, Seymour has argued he has a path to legislative victory by comparing the issue to the End of Life Choice Act, which, following a parliamentary process, was passed into law upon confirmation of a binding public referendum.
But the comparison is only apt in the broadest lawmaking terms.
End of Life Choice began as a member’s bill, whereas the Treaty Principles is a government bill.
End of Life Choice was a conscience issue, meaning MPs were free to make personal voting decisions and weren’t compelled to vote along party lines. The Treaty Principles bill is highly unlikely to be deemed a conscience issue by Parliament’s Speaker, meaning MPs will ultimately vote in their respective party blocks.
And ultimately, the End of Life Choice bill went to a binding referendum as a compromise in exchange for New Zealand First MPs’ support. So far, no party apart from ACT has indicated it supports a binding referendum on the Treaty Principles.
A major challenge for Seymour
By appointing Seymour as the associate minister in charge of the bill’s progress, Luxon likely hopes to distance himself and his party as much as possible from the Treaty Principles issue, despite its status as a bill introduced by his Government.
The political risk in that decision is that Seymour is now in a stronger legislative position to amplify and expand the debate. A National associate minister would have been much more likely to push the bill through and bury the whole issue as quickly as possible.
But if we’ve learnt anything from Waitangi, Rātana, and the first few weeks of the political year, it’s that Seymour faces a herculean political challenge to prove his bill isn’t doomed before the legislative process has even started.
SHARE ME