Analysis: With only 15 spots up for grabs for June’s T20 World Cup, Sean Nugent looks at the those definitely going, favourites to go, contenders and genuine bolters the Black Caps may take on the plane to the West Indies.
After suffering an embarrassing loss to Bangladesh last month, the Black Caps have begun to find their straps in the T20 format, taking a 2-0 series lead against 2022 finalists Pakistan as key players return and World Cup hopefuls find their form.
While there is still plenty of time for some to make their case for selection for June’s tournament in the West Indies, competition for places is beginning to heat up. Here’s a look at those definitely on the plane, fighting for a spot, and possible bolters.
Definitely going
A primary reason there is such hot competition for spots is due to a number already locked in by experienced key players.
Kane Williamson, Tim Southee, Mitchell Santner, Daryl Mitchell, Devon Conway, and Glenn Phillips will all be on the plane, barring injury. Adam Milne has probably also secured a ticket thanks to his performances this summer, while Trent Boult will be a no-brainer selection if he makes himself available. That leaves just seven spots for others to fight for.
Favourites
Finn Allen
The 24-year-old is probably the cleanest hitter of a cricket ball in the country, but has struggled to nail a spot in the side due to moments of recklessness and loss of concentration that has cost him from building on good starts.
Allen’s 74 in Hamilton showed a level of maturity that perhaps had been lacking, and he admitted after the game he had been working on being more adaptable to conditions and changing gears at the right time.
The devastating power he can provide at the top is crucial to New Zealand’s success. Black Caps coach Gary Stead said he is the perfect foil to Conway and Williamson, who tend to build their innings rather than go hard from ball one. Allen’s role of getting New Zealand off to a flyer and relieving the pressure off those around him surely makes him a must-have at the World Cup.
Lockie Ferguson
The frontline quick has recently returned to the field in the Super Smash after recovering from an injury suffered at the World Cup in India in October. It wasn’t a great World Cup by Ferguson’s standards. His pace was down and he struggled to make as much of an impact as he had four years earlier.
However, the signs are promising in his return to the Aces. He was devastating against the Northern Brave last week, taking 4-14 to lead his side to victory. He will feature in the final three T20s against Pakistan as the Black Caps selectors take stock of their fast bowling candidates.
Given his experience and ability when in full flight, Ferguson is likely to be a lock-in, so long as he’s fully healthy.
Ish Sodhi
Many would be surprised that Sodhi has taken the fourth most T20 international wickets ever, but the wily leg-spinner continues to deliver strong performances year after year.
However, the 31-year-old hasn’t been in great form this summer, struggling with his lengths after coming off a poor 50-over World Cup in India. He has offered little with the bat – being bowled for a duck by Haris Rauf twice in three days – and is generally considered a liability in the field who needs to be hidden as much as possible. In saying that, Sodhi is one of New Zealand’s most experienced short-format cricketers and the coaching staff will have faith in him finding a way to take wickets in the West Indies.
Ben Sears
Sears is finally getting a consistent run in the side after being the latest talented Kiwi fast bowler to struggle with an array of injuries. It’s safe to say he’s made the most of the opportunity too. The 25-year-old has taken seven wickets in five games this summer, including picking up Pakistan star Babar Azam in back-to-back innings.
His delivery speed has also been rapid at times, pushing the 145km/h mark and troubling batsmen with his bounce and skiddy deliveries. While probably not in the Black Caps’ top XI, he provides a perfect like-for-like replacement for Milne or Ferguson should either injury-plagued bowler go down again.
Mark Chapman
Sometimes the numbers don’t tell the full story, and that’s certainly the case for Chapman, who has suffered a fair amount of bad luck and limited opportunities in recent times. Twice in his last 10 international innings he’s been run out in calamitous fashion, sacrificing his wicket after his partner’s error.
Batting at six, he’s often not had much time to build into his innings either, but has shown flashes of brilliance, like at Eden Park last week where he scored 26 off just 11 balls to help the Black Caps past 220.
His spot is probably under the most pressure, with Jimmy Neesham and Michael Bracewell looming in the wings. At this stage though, Chapman has the edge.
Contenders
Jimmy Neesham
Neesham has often had a raw deal in recent years. His numbers show he is clearly one of the best finishers in the game, as he proved once again against Bangladesh last month with crucial scores of 48 and 28no in his two innings.
Unfortunately, his non-selection has often been due to a lack of faith in his bowling ability, although it seems strange that is not a factor for his replacement Chapman. Neesham also suffers from the fact he turned down a central contract in 2022, with New Zealand Cricket emphasising contracted players would be prioritised. Whether the selectors can risk leaving behind a player with such a match-winning ability remains to be seen.
Tim Seifert
Much in the same vein as Allen, Seifert is a power-hitter at the top of the order who can also don the gloves. While he has shown plenty of ability, inconsistency has let him down too often. An excellent 43 was sandwiched by scores of 1 and 0 against Bangladesh, and he found himself dropped from the side when Conway returned for the ongoing Pakistan series.
However, Williamson’s latest injury has opened a door for Seifert to prove his worth and put together a string of scores in the black jersey. If he can do so, his chances of making the World Cup greatly increase.
Michael Bracewell
Almost a forgotten figure having only just recovered from an Achilles injury suffered last June, Bracewell is back in the Super Smash looking to re-find the kind of form that saw him come a Black Caps regular throughout 2022.
His T20 record for his country is scarcely believable – a batting average of nearly 20 with a strike rate of 140, and 21 wickets with a bowling average of just 10.
He’s only played three games for Wellington so far this summer and is still finding his feet back on the field. It’s likely he’ll be given some opportunities in national colours later on this summer when Australia arrive on New Zealand shores.
Rachin Ravindra
A hero at the 50-over World Cup in India, Ravindra has quickly become one of the most recognisable names in New Zealand cricket.
However, despite his 50-over success, Ravindra has struggled at both international and domestic level in T20s. In 52 games, he averages just 16 with the bat, while in 18 internationals that drops to just 13.
While he does provide another option with the ball, it's difficult to see where Ravindra would fit into the lineup. His selection will come down to how much faith selectors have in talent rather than statistics.
Matt Henry
Such are the quality of New Zealand’s fast bowling stocks, someone of Henry’s quality finds themselves on the outside looking in.
Henry had a six-year hiatus between T20 games for New Zealand between 2017 and 2023 but has since become more of a regular figure in the national side.
Strong series in Pakistan and England last year push his case, but with a look at the names ahead of him on the pecking order, his chances of making the World Cup remain a long shot.
Bolters
Doug Bracewell
Pondering whether Doug Bracewell might be the most dangerous T20 batsman in the country is not something most would have expected to have been talking about in 2023, but here we are.
Bracewell has been on an absolute tear for Central Stags this summer, smashing an unbeaten 93 off just 33 balls against the Brave, before slamming four consecutive sixes to win the game against Wellington last week.
His bowling hasn’t been bad either. He took 2-21 in the same fixture against Wellington and continues to be the leader of the Stags bowling attack.
It’s been more than 12 years since Bracewell ripped through Australia for a famous victory in Hobart, but the veteran is still only 33 and could do an excellent job as an experienced all-rounder.
Nathan Smith
Certainly one of the most improved and talented young players in the country, Smith has had an excellent domestic season this summer and deserves to be considered for higher honours.
Leading the Wellington attack, the 25-year-old has taken plenty of wickets while also being very economical.
In a similar vein to Southee, Smith is an accurate medium-fast bowler who can swing the ball both ways. Throw in the fact he’s more than handy with the bat and Smith should feature for New Zealand in the years to come. It’s probably too early to be thinking about World Cups though.
Tim Robinson
An explosive knock from Tim Robinson has seen the Wellington Firebirds claim a dominant win over the Otago Volts at the Basin Reserve. (Source: 1News)
The latest in a line of talented opening batters out of Wellington, Robinson has been the form batter in the Super Smash this summer.
Just 21, he hammered an incredible 139 against Otago last month, a knock that included 10 sixes, and has followed it up with 86 against Canterbury last week.
While still raw and with only a handful of domestic games under his belt, Robinson has shown he’s an exciting prospect that should be playing higher honours sooner rather than later.
Jacob Duffy
The Otago stalwart continues to impress on the domestic circuit, proving to be one of the best bowlers in the country.
Although he has only been given limited chances in the black jersey, Duffy has handled himself well on the international stage, bowling well against Bangladesh last month and putting in solid performances over the past two years in the handful of T20 internationals he has played in.
Unfortunately, finding a way into this squad is nigh on impossible for Duffy given the complement of fast bowling talent available to selectors.
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