Analysis: Migration figures are painting a fascinating picture of rapid change in the make-up of New Zealand’s population, writes Q+A presenter Jack Tame.
Like many New Zealanders, I’ve lost count of the number of friends, family members, and colleagues who have decided to up sticks and move overseas off the back of the pandemic.
It’s understandable, given the last few years.
Many of those who have left are pursuing a version of the classic Kiwi OE. Having been limited by travel restrictions and lockdowns throughout the first Covid years, a surge in departures was predictable once the border restrictions lifted.
But not everyone leaving is off to mooch around London for a while.
The tricky domestic economy and global labour shortages are fueling a war for talent, and the unique conditions are having a remarkable impact on New Zealand’s migration statistics.
Statistics New Zealand registered a record net migration loss of 44,700 New Zealand citizens for the year to September 2023.
It’s important to distinguish this figure from overall net migration which includes non-citizens in its figures. Overall net migration for the same period saw a record gain of 118,000 people in New Zealand.
These two figures would be extraordinary enough in isolation, but together they paint a fascinating picture of rapid change in the make up of New Zealand’s population.
At the same time as we are losing more New Zealand citizens than ever before, we are gaining more people overall than ever before.
Those arriving in New Zealand are helping to address our domestic labour shortages.
Inevitably though, with arguably lax immigration policies, there have been numerous reports of migrant exploitation. Many thousands of those to arrive on our shores have come to work in low-skilled jobs.
Giving NZers a reason to return
When it comes to those leaving, the difference between an OE and many other departures is that those going on their OE often intend to return.
But more than half of the New Zealand citizens to depart in the last year did so for Australia. I think it’s reasonable to surmise that many within this cohort do not necessarily intend to come back, in the same way that someone heading off to the UK might.
From both an economic and social perspective, losing this many New Zealander citizens should give our leaders cause for concern.
But there is also opportunity in these numbers.
Many of those to go overseas will develop skills and networks which could be of signficant benefit to our country in the coming decades.
But that means bringing them back.
Without overly catastrophising the ‘brain drain’, our next government should be focused on improving conditions for returning New Zealanders in the future. Things like housing affordability, transport infrastructure, and the cost of living are all likely to impact a decision whether or not to return.
There is only so much we can do in the short term to stem the tide of departures. But in addition to familial bonds, we have to give New Zealanders a reason to come back home.
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