Analysis: A quality backline, including Damian McKenzie at No.10, will give last season's losing finalists a big advantage in 2024, writes Patrick McKendry.
Super Rugby doesn’t have the grip on the nation that it used to for all sorts of reasons, including the competence of those running it, but the powers-that-be have got one thing right for 2024: the opening game, a rematch of last season’s final between the Chiefs and Crusaders.
It will kick off at Waikato Stadium on February 23 – a little over 100 days away – and will represent new Crusaders coach Rob Penney’s first competition game in charge after replacing Scott Robertson. Talk about big shoes to fill.
The Chiefs shocked the Crusaders in Christchurch in the corresponding match last year when winning 31-10 before the defending champions rolled them 25-20 in a gripping final in Hamilton.
And this time the Chiefs will be favoured to get off to a winning start again because their squad is one of the strongest in the competition even despite the departures of Brodie Retallick, Brad Weber and Pita Gus Sowakula and absence of Sam Cane due to a Japan sabbatical.
Crucially, they have Damian McKenzie, the All Blacks’ No.10-elect, at first-five, whereas the Crusaders may be forced to play former Wales international fullback Leigh Halfpenny there due to Fergus Burke’s Achilles injury suffered while playing for Canterbury last month. Burke is out until April at the earliest.
One of the biggest common denominators of the Crusaders’ run of success between 2017 and 2023 was Richie Mo’unga. He was a standout in every season, his playmaking, goalkicking and tactical awareness leading the Crusaders to seven titles in a row.
He will leave a huge hole, and not only at the Crusaders, and while the red and blacks will have another hugely strong pack, with the likes of Tamaiti Williams, George Bower, Joe Moody, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Ethan Blackadder, Tom Christie, Cullen Grace and Quentin Strange, the Chiefs will have an edge with their backline.
Sam Whitelock also leaves a big hole, as will hooker Codie Taylor, who is taking a non-playing sabbatical for most of the season.
For the Chiefs, Quinn Tupaea makes a welcome return from injury to join Anton Lienert-Brown in the midfield, with Etene Nanai-Seturo, Emoni Narawa and Shaun Stevenson one of the better outside back formations around.
Samipeni Finau and Luke Jacobson are quality loose forwards, while the Chiefs have depth at lock through Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Josh Lord, Manaaki Selby-Rickit and Tupou Vaa'i.
Levi Aumua, who joins the Crusaders from Moana Pasifika, will help make up for the absence of Leicester Fainga’anuku, with Will Jordan and Sevu Reece and the improving Dallas McLeod excellent finishers. Ryan Crotty returns to the Crusaders at the age of 35. Halfpenny, 34, is an interesting selection from Wales.
For the Crusaders, their season may hinge on how they cope with the absence of the reliable Burke, 24, for the first half of it.
Elsewhere, there will be interest in how the Blues develop under new coach Vern Cotter without Beauden Barrett and how the Highlanders rebuild under Jamie Joseph without Aaron Smith and Shannon Frizell. The Highlanders again have a very youthful squad.
The Hurricanes will likely be hugely impacted by the departures of Ardie Savea and Dane Coles, with midfielder Jordie Barrett having to shoulder a lot of responsibility.
Moana Pasifika have attracted former All Blacks wing Julian Savea but will almost certainly struggle with inexperience under new coaches Tana Umaga, Tom Coventry and Stephen Jones.
The Fijian Drua can no longer be regarded as a surprise package and will seriously trouble teams at home.
The Aussies, spread too thinly across five franchises, will struggle again against the Kiwi teams and who knows how much damage Eddie Jones’ disastrous reign has done to their top players.
But it’s the Crusaders and Chiefs again, with the Blues making up the top three and creating problems at Eden Park – virtually the same as it ever was.
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