Analysis: The final vote is in, and it means National and ACT are going to have to find a way to work with an emboldened New Zealand First, writes 1News political reporter Felix Desmarais.
Four votes.
That's all that was in it for Tāmaki Makaurau.
The official vote count for the 2023 election is in – barring any recounts, which in Tāmaki Makaurau, Mt Albert (20 votes) and Nelson (29 votes) is nigh on inevitable – and it shows every vote truly counts.
You can bet Peeni Henare – who appears to have lost Tāmaki Makaurau to Te Pāti Māori's Takutai Kemp by just four votes – wishes he'd managed to get just five more mates to the polling booth. Ouch.
The tiny margins show how crucial turnout was in those seats, but the voice of the people has also been heard in another way – through New Zealand First's full-throated song in the new three-way coalition government.
Voters were simply not convinced enough by National or ACT to back them with the numbers to form a government alone.
Here's the crux of it: preliminary results showed National and ACT would be able to form a government Bill Withers style – Just the Two of Us. With 61 total seats between them, that was, however, on the slimmest of margins – just a one seat majority in an 120-seat parliament.
But now, with special votes counted, National has lost two seats and a Te Pāti Māori surge means this term, parliament will have 123 seats, and a majority requires 62 seats. National and ACT are now on 59 seats, meaning they definitely, certainly, unequivocally need New Zealand First to form a government. With New Zealand First's eight seats, the three-party coalition will make up a comfortable 67 seats – plenty of room for Gaurav Sharma-type (remember him?) situations.
What this means – dependence. National is wholly dependent on New Zealand First to form a government, and boy golly does that give the party of Winston Peters a commanding bargaining chip around the coalition negotiation table.
ACT leader David Seymour and Peters' personal enmity is well documented. Add in policy conflicts and it's bound to get a bit spicy. But then, a zesty democracy with a diversity of voice is the surely the goal of MMP. Just as long as it doesn't tip over into inedible.
New Zealand First's position fortifies its place in the government however, and as sure as Winston Peters' grin is his likelihood to maximise his bolstered leverage for the wants and whims of his voter base.
Both National and ACT said repeatedly on the campaign their "preferred" arrangement did not include New Zealand First.
But Luxon today said there was "good will and good faith" from all three political party leaders and "good conversations".
We have to take Luxon's word for it, since he won't elaborate on even the tiniest of details about negotiations. We also don't know how far off the formation of New Zealand's next government is.
Asked about the tension between Seymour and Peters, Luxon batted it off saying there was "tension between lots of different parties in this place".
Tensions between, or what we might also call contests of, ideas being kind of the point in a parliament. But in a government, it's crucial there is some consensus and cooperation.
And now National and ACT will likely need another C to secure the support of New Zealand First: compromise.
Such is the voice – and it seems, vote – of the people.
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