The electorates that could flip in the final election results

November 2, 2023
Special votes could see a change in some electorate results

Every vote counts, as they say — but that's especially the case in several electorates around the country.

At the end of the preliminary vote count on October 14, it was clear National had been given the mandate to form the next government, however the exact makeup of that government remained up in the air with special votes still to come.

Some candidates ended election night clinging to victory with the smallest of margins, meaning those estimated 567,000 special votes could well see some electorates flip to a new winner.

So, which candidates will be nervously awaiting the final election results tomorrow afternoon?

Te Atatū

There are currently just 30 votes separating two candidates in this usually safe Labour seat.

National's Angee Nicholas holds the slimmest of leads over Labour's Phil Twyford, who won the electorate in 2020 by more than 10,500 votes.

If Nicholas does hang on to the electorate, the 29-year-old of Cook Island descent would bring some Pacific representation to the National-led government.

It would also spell the end of Twyford's time in Parliament as his list ranking of 49 wouldn't be high enough to get him back to the Beehive.

Nelson

There are also just dozens of votes in the race for the Nelson electorate, with National's Blair Cameron leading incumbent Labour MP Rachel Boyack by a margin of 54.

Boyack famously ousted long-term National MP Nick Smith in the 2020 election and certainly has a fight on her hands to keep the electorate this time.

She will be one of several Labour MPs hoping the special votes skew left like they usually do.

Banks Peninsula

The Christchurch electorate of Banks Peninsula had been Labour's since 1999 but was poised to turn blue on election night.

National candidate (and former Labour Party member) Vanessa Weenink currently holds the seat with an 83-vote margin over incumbent Labour MP Tracey McLellan.

Mt Albert

Labour MP Helen White (file photo).

The race for the Mt Albert seat was one of the biggest talking points on election night, with National's Melissa Lee in the lead for much of the evening.

Labour's Helen White eventually finished the night with a 106-vote lead, but that preliminary result was still a shock for an electorate that has always been Labour's and was once the seat of both Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern. The latter won Mt Albert with a majority of more than 21,000 votes in 2020.

White still maintained she was "really, really proud" of her election night result.

"I didn't do badly. I did really, really well. And if you look at the stats, you'll see that."

White will no doubt be hoping those stats are still in her and her 106-vote lead's favour come Friday afternoon.

New Lynn

This West Auckland electorate had always been a red seat - until this year.

National’s Paulo Garcia led Labour’s Deborah Russell by 483 votes by the end of the preliminary vote counting.

While this winning margin may not be as slim as others, there is still some possibility of special votes making a difference. Russell will no doubt be hoping a significant portion of the country’s special votes are Labour supporters registered in the New Lynn electorate.

Potential sway in the Māori seats?

Labour's Kelvin Davis.

Te Pāti Māori swept four Māori seats on election night and could potentially scoop up two more if the special votes fall their way on Friday.

Labour's Kelvin Davis is currently holding on to his Te Tai Tokerau seat with a margin of 487 votes over Te Pāti Māori candidate Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. Davis won that same electorate in 2020 by more than 8000 votes.

His colleague, Peeni Henare, is also currently holding on to the Tāmaki Makaurau seat by fewer than 500 votes over Takutai Tarsh Kemp of Te Pāti Māori.

A final picture of the House

Christopher Luxon (left) and Nicola Willis (right) at Parliament following the 2023 general election (file photo).

With a current majority of nearly 20,000 votes in his Botany seat, Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon won't be sweating his electorate results. But he and his team will still be watching tomorrow's final election results very closely.

National and ACT currently hold a 61-seat majority together, but National's campaign manager Chris Bishop told Q+A his party expects to lose "at least one" seat after the special votes.

If that does eventuate, National and ACT will need to turn to New Zealand First to form a government — and it sounds like New Zealand First is ready for that outcome.

Party leader Winston Peters told 1News yesterday that "everything is going well" while in Wellington for potential coalition talks.

Things may go even better for Peters and his party once those special votes are released tomorrow afternoon.

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