Analysis: England's zero risk policy got them to within sight of victory in their semifinal but in the end it was a curse, writes Patrick McKendry in Paris.
England provided a blueprint for how to beat the Springboks in their World Cup semifinal – kick the ball in the air and smash everyone in green – but in the end they didn’t have enough of a points buffer to continue to play with so little imagination.
That’s what cost them in their 16-15 semifinal defeat to the world champions at a damp and occasionally furious Stade de France played out in front of a large proportion of French fans who didn’t much care for either team and even less for Kiwi referee Ben O’Keeffe.
Owen Farrell’s utter refusal to pass the ball to his midfield was almost admirable in its doggedness. The England skipper and first-five had been given a game plan and he was determined to stick to it through hell or high water. But what appeared to be a blessing became a curse.
England’s only points came via his penalties and an outstanding dropped goal from nearly 50m – the latter was the only score his side made in the second half – and when they were forced to chase the game for the final two minutes the men in white looked genuinely confused about how to go about it.
While the Boks looked a shadow of themselves for three quarters of the match – they were outmuscled by England’s pack and couldn’t rely on their lineout – two things in particular make them dangerous opponents for the All Blacks in Sunday morning’s final.
One is their self belief and the other is their second-half scrummaging ability provided by replacement props Ox Nche and Vincent Koch.
The All Blacks have backed their two 23-year-old props Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell to provide cover and impact off the reserves bench in their two knockout matches here but those pair will have their hands full against Nche and Koch.
Regardless, it’s difficult to see Foster going back to Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Nepo Laulala at this point (behind starters Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax) because of what the two young incumbents provide with their ball carrying, defence and decision making.
Besides, there were only five scrums against Ireland and 10 against Pumas, and the All Blacks have such faith in this part of their game now that they wanted more scrums against the Irish (where they won three penalties).
It was a scrummaging dominance that continued against Argentina, who conceded a scrum penalty late in the first half which led to Shannon Frizell’s try, plus one after halftime when Aaron Smith scooted away on a penalty advantage. At that point – 27-6 – there was no way back for the Pumas.
Elsewhere in the second semifinal, the All Blacks would have noted how wing Cheslin Kolbe, relatively short at 1.71m, was put under so much pressure by England’s box kicks, and saw too how keen South Africa were to kick the ball straight back – and often long.
Ian Foster’s men got their kicking balance wrong against France in their opening defeat but appear to have adapted and tactically were far better against Ireland and Argentina in their first two knockout matches.
The Boks won’t get away with such inaccurate kicking against an All Black back three in such good attacking form and with licence to play what they see. Will Jordan’s obvious danger – a World Cup-equalling eight tries already in France – may be used to create space for others, including midfielders Rieko Ioane and Jordie Barrett.
England’s lack of imagination won’t be a problem for a New Zealand team possessing their own sense of destiny.
And should the All Blacks tackle with the ferocity England did, the Boks, who have had to dig extremely deep mentally and physically to get to this point (they also had to come from behind to beat France 29-28 in their quarter-final), may find maintaining a similar intensity difficult.
"Both squads are similar in terms of experience, X-factor and where and how they want to play,” South Africa assistant coach Deon Davids said a day after his team’s win.
“It is going to be a tight battle to outsmart each other and to ensure you get the upper hand.
"It is going to be about possession, playing in the right areas, using your opportunities. It is going to be a massive battle. Those are the things that I think assisted the teams to get into the final. The team that executes the best, pitches up mentally the best to adapt to the conditions, will be the winners of this tournament."
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