How polls have shifted as the election approached

Election day tomorrow comes after the polls have tightened during the campaign, making what was looking like an easy road to a National-ACT government several weeks ago now a lot harder to call.

The 1News-Verian poll has been tracking those changes throughout the past 18 months, with weekly polling since September. Watch the changes unfold in the animated chart below:

National has led in the polls for much of the time since March 2022 when it had a slim 2% lead - 39% to 37%.

That gap had opened up to 5% a year ago. But Labour then had a resurgence and a narrow lead changed hands over the next couple of months.

Then National surged ahead and had a huge 11% lead in September as the official election campaign got going. That had reduced a little by this week when Labour was 9% behind.

But the change in the minor parties has been crucial. A year ago, Act was polling 11%, the Greens 9% and New Zealand First 4%.

Fast forward a year and the Greens have jumped to 14%, NZ First has surged across the threshold for getting MPs back into Parliament with 6%, and Act has dropped to 9%.

If reflected in the actual election results tomorrow night, that would mean National needing both ACT and NZ First (or another, though less likely, combination of parties) to form a government.

In the preferred prime minister stakes the changes have also been stark.

Back in January 2022, Jacinda Ardern had a significant lead over Christopher Luxon - 35% to 17%. By November last year Luxon had gone into the lead.

And then at the start of this year, Ardern announced her surprise resignation. Chris Hipkins took over as Labour leader and jumped ahead of Luxon.

That race stayed tight throughout the year, with Luxon going ahead of Hipkins just once during the election campaign, and then by only 1%. This week they were tied at 25% each.

More on this topic

Poll: Labour lifts and Greens strong, Peters has decision to make

The gap between the right and left blocs is narrowing, according to the last 1News Verian poll before the election.

Politics

October 11, 2023

6:18

So the twists and turns of the polls have been significant over the past couple of years. But, as politicians love to say, the only poll that counts is the one on election night.

* Follow all the results, reaction and analysis on 1News.co.nz and TVNZ1 from 7pm Saturday.