Analysis: If the Black Caps can navigate their way through their next two World Cup games against Bangladesh and Afghanistan without a snag, they could be headed for a similar run to the knockout stages as 2019, writes Guy Heveldt.
The Black Caps’ path to the Cricket World Cup semi-finals is starting to shape as a very similar run as that of the 2019 edition and this two-match Chennai double-header could go a long way to deciding if they get there or not.
New Zealand’s looked good in their opening matches, particularly the comprehensive, belief-growing win over England in front of a sparse crowd in Ahmedabad. The easy brushing aside of the Netherlands then solidifying their spot atop the ladder, for now at least.
But while these two games – starting tonight with Bangladesh – appear two of the easier ones on paper, they may be anything but.
Going from the more batting-friendly conditions of Ahmedabad and Hyderabad to the spin-challenge of Chennai will pose some challenges.
Yip, Bangladesh were thrashed by England, before bouncing back in a big win over Afghanistan, but they will relish rocking up on the south-east coast.
Conditions will be far more similar to home to what they’ve already encountered in the tournament and vastly different for New Zealand.
The Kiwis’ ability to play spin will be tested to its absolute, probably a relief then that Kane Williamson’s been confirmed to return.
They also have adept players of spin at their disposal – the likes of Rachin Ravindra who seems likely to stay at the top – and either of Mark Chapman or Will Young who would slot into the middle order.
But of the eight times Bangladesh has beaten New Zealand in their 41 ODI meetings in history, they’ve come in their home, spin-friendly conditions, conditions similar to those of what Chennai should likely present.
The Black Caps will also likely have some uncomfortable memories of losing an ODI to the lowly UAE just a couple of months ago.
Yes, a much different XI will line up tonight and then again against Afghanistan on Wednesday to what was put out on the park in that ODI series, but there’s no doubt that doubt-inducing defeat would still linger, even if just a touch.
If, however, they can win these two games, the road to the semi-finals seems wide open.
The opponents get markedly more difficult, but a four-from-four record would leave them in feeling as comfortable as a night in your own bed after six months on the road.
2019 had a similar shape to it. New Zealand managed to win their first four games, with a similarly strong net-run-rate as well, before a washout in what would’ve been their fifth fixture, against India, left them unbeaten atop the standings. They then could still afford to lose three of their remaining four games and make the semi-finals.
The same equation could become real here in India.
The run home reads tough: hosts India, trans-Tasman rivals Australia, their World Cup bunnies South Africa, then Pakistan and Sri Lanka to finish. Tough, but made that significant chunk easier if they can head into it as an unbeaten side. If that happens, three losses could possibly be afforded with a semi-final berth still on the table.
Which makes these next two games arguably their most important in the tournament. Easy on paper, yes. Tougher than they look? Absolutely.
Win them both though and a run to their first Cricket World Cup title becomes just a touch more realistic.
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