The Green Party "will be ecstatic" with its latest polling, 1News deputy political editor Maiki Sherman told Breakfast this morning.
Last night's 1News Verian poll showed Labour on 28%, National on 37%, the Greens on 14%, ACT on 9%, Te Pāti Māori on 2% and New Zealand First in the kingmaker position on 6%.
"Their best result ever," Sherman said of the Greens. "They will be ecstatic, they will be jumping for joy. They are going to have 17 MPs based on these numbers – but it does them little favour when Labour can't get its numbers up to where it needs to be."
She said the Green Party would be concerned it won't be in government.
However, 17 MPs in opposition is also a "very strong position", Sherman said.
"We won't count any chickens just yet, we will wait until Saturday, but it is going to be an interesting mix depending on the results."
Asked if Labour's 2% rise in the latest poll is too little, too late, she said: "I think so."
Sherman also said ACT leader David Seymour "looks like he's under pressure".
"He's just trying to walk through it with his eyes closed and come out on Saturday hoping for the best," she said.
"But the polls are not looking good for him... He looks tired."
On the tension between Seymour and NZ First leader Winston Peters, Sherman said "the chat will be different" if they're in government.
"I think something that people really need to remember is that, yes, they could be sitting around that Cabinet table.
"[But] they could also have a situation where one of them – either ACT or New Zealand First – isn't actually in Cabinet and is happy enough to sit outside," she said.
"David Seymour has indicated that he could be open to that, so that could be an opportunity to keep a bit of space between them."
But the direct ACT-National and NZ First-National relationships will be the key issue, Sherman added.
"So they won't have to deal with each other too much, and I think Chris Luxon would probably be skilled enough to manage that."
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