It’s desperate times for Labour as New Zealanders' votes appear to be solidifying with just 10 days left until election day, the latest 1News Verian poll suggests.
It may also be wise for National leader Christopher Luxon to put New Zealand First leader Winston Peters’ number on speed dial, with the poll showing Luxon will need New Zealand First to help form a government.
Both major parties are steady in the party vote, with 36% for National and 26% for Labour.
With 10 days left until election day, Labour is staring at defeat, while National's hopes of a two-party coalition are on thin ice. (Source: 1News)
Also steady since last week’s 1News Verian poll is the Green Party on 13%, New Zealand First on 6% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%.
However, the ACT Party has dropped two points to 10%.
It means National would have 46 seats and ACT would have 13 seats, bringing Christopher Luxon’s “preferred” coalition partnership up short with 59 seats, two shy of the required 61 for a majority. New Zealand First’s eight seats would round its numbers out to 67, a comfortable majority that would be reasonably by-election-proof.
On the left, Labour’s 33 seats along with the Greens’ 17 and Te Pāti Māori’s three would come up short at just 53 seats in total.
Luxon has warned the public of the possibility of New Zealand First entering into a deal with the left bloc, saying both Peters and Labour leader Chris Hipkins could reverse on their refusals to work with one another. But with even NZ First’s numbers, the left bloc would have only a tenuous majority on 61, based on the poll.
The poll also showed New Zealanders were gradually making up their minds about who they would vote for, with the don’t know / refused to answer portion on 10%, down one point on the last poll.
New Zealanders’ views seem similarly settled on their lukewarm response to both Chrises also, albeit with a boost for Luxon. Luxon was the preferred prime minister for 26% of those polled, up three points on last week’s poll, while Hipkins was up two points to 25%.
It's the first time Luxon has sat above Hipkins in a 1News Verian poll.
Peters leapfrogged ACT leader David Seymour on 4% to Seymour’s 3%, due to a two point drop for the latter.
Party vote
National – 36% (steady)
Labour – 26% (steady)
Green – 13% (steady)
ACT – 10% (down 2%)
New Zealand First – 6% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 2% (steady)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 2% (up 1%)
New Zealand Loyal – 1% (steady)
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis – 1% (up 1%)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (up 1%)
NewZeal – 1% (steady)
Seats in the House
(Calculation assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the Waiariki electorate.)
National – 46
Labour – 33
Green – 17
ACT – 13
New Zealand First – 8
Te Pāti Māori – 3
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 26% (up 3%)
Chris Hipkins – 25% (up 2%)
Winston Peters – 4% (steady)
David Seymour – 3% (down 2%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 2% (up 1%)
See the full poll results and methodology here
Between September 30 and October 3 2023, 1000 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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