Could Te Pāti Māori’s youngest candidate end Labour’s unbroken reign in Hauraki-Waikato?
A Whakaata Māori poll has newcomer Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke within reach of unseating incumbent Nanaia Mahuta. The results, released during a live debate between the two candidates on Tuesday night, has Mahuta on 36% and Maipi-Clarke on 32%, with 14% undecided.
The poll revealed Maipi-Clarke in the lead as preferred candidate for those aged under 40 at 43% compared to Mahuta on 30%. But older voters are more likely to vote, and those aged 60+ still back Mahuta at 43% to 12% for Maipi-Clarke.
Mahuta has held the Hauraki-Waikato electorate since its inception in 2008 and is the country’s longest continuously serving female MP. She isn’t standing on the party’s list and the fresh challenge from Maipi-Clarke could see the MP of 27 years ousted from Parliament.
In the preferred party stakes, Labour and Te Pāti Māori are neck and neck, both polling at 26% followed by National on 14%, Greens on 8, New Zealand First, 6, and ACT on 5%. Seven percent were undecided and 2% refused to say.
When the latter two groups are removed, Labour has 29% of the party vote (a drop of 36% on the 2020 election). Te Pāti Māori has 28% (up 16%), National 15% (11% higher), Greens 9% (up 3), NZ First 6 (up 2) and ACT 5% (4% higher).
The cost of living has been the most important issue across the polling of four Māori electorates to date and it was no different in the Hauraki-Waikato poll with 30% nominating it.
It was followed by the economy (10%), jobs (9%), housing (6%) and health 5%.
Chris Hipkins was the most preferred prime minister on 33%, followed by Christopher Luxon on 12%, Winston Peters on 9% and Rawiri Waititi, on 8.
Conducted by Curia Market Research, polling was completed on Wednesday 27 September. A total of 500 registered voters in Hauraki-Waikato, were polled by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent at the 95% confidence level.
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