Analysis: Patterns between voter turnout and the major parties’ fortunes have emerged during the age of MMP, writes Q+A presenter Jack Tame.
It’s a tricky exercise determining what New Zealand’s sense of collective melancholy might mean for voter turnout in this year’s election.
Voters overseas have been able to cast ballots since Wednesday. Polls in New Zealand officially open for early voting next week.
If past elections are anything to go by, many hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders will have cast their ballots before October 14.
The 2020 election recorded New Zealand’s highest voter turnout this century, with 82.2% of eligible voters casting a ballot.
But that turnout was an aberration that occured in the context of Covid-19. Before that, voter turnout hadn’t broken 80% since 2005.
Orthodox political theory suggests conservative or centre-right voters are more likely than voters on the political left to actually cast a ballot.
With that in mind, it’s interesting to compare voter turnout in general elections with the major parties’ resulting party vote.
High voter turnout usually better news for Labour
There have been nine elections in the MMP era so far.
Of the five elections with the highest voter turnout, Labour has recorded four of its five best party vote results, and National has recorded four of its five worst.
Of the five MMP elections with the lowest voter turnout, National has recorded four of its five best party vote results, and Labour has recorded four of its five worst.
Even across a relatively small data set, there is a clear correlation between voter turnout and the major parties’ respective performances in general elections.
In elections with a higher voter turnout, Labour does better and National does worse. In elections with a lower turnout, National does better and Labour does worse.
But correlation does not equal causation.
We cannot say that Labour’s current poor polling will automatically result in a lower overall turnout.
Besides, according to the polls, National has only broken 40% once in this campaign, which would be a middling result for the party compared to previous elections.
It is also notable that smaller parties continue to poll higher than in previous campaigns.
If the current polls are to be believed, ACT and the Greens could both return to parliament with their largest-ever caucuses.
But the negative, unambitious nature of the major party campaigns and the general sense of dissatisfaction and malaise among voters does not suggest to me that 2023 is likely to buck the trend when it comes to voter turnout.
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