The upsets are coming at this Rugby World Cup, which is likely to be the most even in history. Patrick McKendry looks at four teams that could shake up the status quo.
Pool A – Italy
Of all the pools at the World Cup, Pool A, also containing France and New Zealand, appears the most straightforward in terms of predicting who will qualify. Could Italy upset those two powerhouses? Extremely unlikely, even given their improvement over the last cycle.
Italy were also in New Zealand’s pool four years ago in Japan but the match never eventuated due to a typhoon. Italy play Namibia and Uruguay before facing the other big two. France and the All Blacks will almost certainly go through to the quarters.
Pool B – Scotland
This is more like it. Scotland, who pushed the All Blacks close in Edinburgh at the end of last year, have become a very difficult team to beat and could ask some serious questions of the higher ranked Ireland and South Africa, the defending world champions.
The common assumption is that the Boks and Ireland will qualify, but it may not be so straightforward. The Scots hammered Wales in this year’s Six Nations, pushed France close in a 32-21 defeat in Paris, and beat England at Twickenham. They have the Boks first up on Monday in what will be a highly-anticipated match.
Pool C – Fiji
Crucially, perhaps, Fiji play the big two first up – Wales, then Australia. That means they should be at their freshest mentally and physically, and still with the most to play for. After beating England at Twickenham recently, there will be high expectations that Fiji can do something special in France.
Neither Wales nor Australia will be taking them lightly. It’s quite conceivable that Fiji win one of those at least if they are their offloading best. Fiji are currently ranked 7th, one spot above England.
Pool D – Samoa
This pool, also featuring Chile, Argentina, Japan and England, is one of the most open in the tournament. Manu Samoa have the physicality to stay in the fight with any of those teams. England, in particular, appear vulnerable given they have yet to win a match under head coach Steve Borthwick.
Argentina may be the hardest for Manu to break down, but with Lima Sopoaga in the No.10 jersey they have real experience and creativity. Japan will also fancy their chances in this pool - they made the quarter-finals four years ago as hosts before losing to the Boks. Their victory over South Africa in Brighton in 2015 remains one of the biggest ever Rugby World Cup upsets.
World Cup opening games this weekend
(All times NZT)
Saturday, 7.15am: France v NZ, Stade de France, Paris
Saturday, 11pm: Italy v Namibia, Staint Etienne
Sunday, 1.30am: Ireland v Romania, Bordeaux
Sunday, 4am: Australia v Georgia, Paris
Sunday, 7am: England v Argentina, Marseille
Sunday, 11pm: Japan v Chile, Toulouse
Monday, 3.45am: South Africa v Scotland, Marseille
Monday, 7am: Wales v Fiji, Bordeaux
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