Analysis: This week’s poll results weren’t good news for Labour, but Luxon’s PM rating is also uninspiring. Political Editor Jessica Mutch McKay explains the significance of the numbers.
The 1News Verian poll released this week caused a stir here at Parliament. The numbers have forced Labour to step into fight mode and it’s prompted National leader Christopher Luxon to up his game if he wants to be seen as prime ministerial material.
There are a few numbers that really matter when you dig into those results, which at this stage have National and Act on track to form the government after October’s election.
29
The first is 29. That’s the percentage of people who say they’ll be voting Labour.
In political polls there a big different between 29 and 30. A party in the thirties is in with a fighting change - in the twenties things get ropey.
When National hit 29% in 2020 Simon Bridges got rolled as opposition leader. In 2017 Andrew Little pulled the pin when Labour hit 24%, opening the door for Jacinda Ardern to step up and go on to become prime minister.
It’s like a magic number you need to keep your head above if you want to stay in the game.
21
The other number that matters is 21. That’s the percentage of people who picked Labour leader Chris Hipkins as their preferred Prime Minister.
It matters because Christopher Luxon is only 1% behind and it shows New Zealanders aren’t that jazzed by the two prime ministerial options.
A third of the 1002 people we polled said “don’t know” when they were asked “Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”. That’s been consistent all year but shows Kiwis aren’t that excited by what’s on offer.
The last time a sitting prime minister was on 21% was Jenny Shipley in 1999 and a few months later she was voted out in favour of Helen Clark.
It’s only Christopher Luxon or Chris Hipkins who are duking it out to be prime minister but there are a few other names making an appearance.
Since the beginning of the year, Act leader David Seymour has got either 6% or 7% in the five 1News polls. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has got 2% or 3% all year. Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick and Deputy National leader Nicola Willis have also both been on 1% or 2% throughout 2023.
61
Sixty-one is another figure that’s always crucial in politics because that’s the number of MPs needed to form a government.
On this week’s results, National and Act combined get 65 seats, a comfortable majority. Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori are looking like they’ll be warming the opposition benches.
There four more sitting days until the campaign proper begins and 40 days until the polls open. The other big number is 14, October 14 – election D-Day.
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