Labour has sunk below 30% in the party vote in the latest 1News Verian poll, a 4% drop in the past month and its worst performance since Chris Hipkins became party leader.
The poll, conducted from August 12 to 16, puts Labour on just 29%. That’s a huge fall since the last election when it received 50% of the party vote.
It’s also seen Hipkins’ worst result in the preferred prime minister stakes since he took on the top job.
National were on 37% in today’s poll, up 2% on July, while ACT picked up 1% to 13%, and the Greens were up 2% to 12%.
The poll also shows a surge for New Zealand First, on 4% and within grasping distance of the crucial 5% party vote needed for a return to Parliament.
On today’s number, the party would need to win an electorate seat to convert its party vote to seats in the House.
Translated to seats in Parliament, today’s poll meant National could comfortably form a government with ACT - National’s 48 seats and ACT’s 17 seats coming to a total of 65 seats.
Labour, on the other hand, would have 37 seats. Combined with the Greens’ 15 seats and Te Pāti Māori’s three seats - provided Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki - the total for the left bloc was just 55.
The magic number for a majority is 61 seats.
ACT's 17 seats would be the best result the party has ever had in an election, almost doubling its record 10 seats in 2020. The Greens' 15 seats would also trump its best result of 14 MPs, which it achieved in in the 2011 and 2014 elections.
Today’s poll results also meant no parties currently outside Parliament would make it back into the corridors of power.
Freedoms New Zealand was steady on 1%, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was also on 1%, down from 2% in the last poll. The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party was also on 1%.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was the preferred prime minister for 21% of the 1002 eligible voters polled, his worst result since taking over the Labour leadership from Dame Jacinda Ardern in January and a drop of 3% on the last poll.
Meanwhile, National leader Christopher Luxon was the preferred prime minister for 20%, steady on the same number as July.
ACT leader David Seymour was once again third in preferred prime minister ratings, with 6%, down 1% on the last poll.
Seymour was followed by NZ First leader Winston Peters (3%), Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick (2%) and National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis (2%).
Ardern was also charting - just behind Willis on 2%, as were fellow former prime ministers John Key (0.3%) and Helen Clark (0.1%).
The number of people who didn’t know or refused to answer which party they would vote for remained steady on 12%.
Party vote
National - 37% (up 2%)
Labour - 29% (down 4%)
ACT - 13% (up 1%)
Green - 12% (up 2%)
New Zealand First - 4% (up 1%)
Te Pāti Māori - 3% (steady)
Freedoms New Zealand - 1% (steady)
The Opportunities Party - 1% (down 1%)
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party - 1% (up 1%)
Don’t know / refused to answer - 12% (steady)
Seats in the House
Assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki for Te Pāti Māori:
National - 48 seats
Labour - 37 seats
ACT - 17 seats
Green - 15 seats
Te Pāti Māori - 3 seats
See the full poll results and methodology here.
Between August 12 and August 16, 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (501). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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