Analysis: It's coming to a crunch for Labour if they're to stop National (and ACT) running away with the election, says Political Editor Jessica Mutch McKay.
The next two weeks is do or die for Labour. If it can stay on course until the end of August it may be a close election but if it can’t re-seize momentum it’s all over and ACT and National will power ahead.
Campaigns are all about momentum. If it’s looking tight volunteers will door knock, put up billboards in their front gardens and get out and vote. If it’s looking like your opponents have a tail wind then that drops away.
Labour insiders say this week is all about creating a big bang and sending the message that Prime Minister and Labour leader Chris Hipkins is in the game. They say the onslaught of policies is planned to build momentum and give their party faithful something to talk about when they are on doorsteps on wintry evenings.
If the GST-free fruit and veges announcement had been a surprise Labour may have let it percolate for a few days. But it wasn’t because it was leaked to National’s Nicola Willis and she passed it onto the press gallery.
That meant we’d already debated the merits so Labour wasted no time and moved on to announce its paid partner leave policy two days later. But wait, there’s more - another announcement on Thursday and probably a further couple at the weekend too. Labour is trying to seize the agenda as the election zooms towards them.
Hipkins seemed at ease at a kindy visit in Brooklyn in Wellington this week. He likes campaigning and isn’t bothered by the gaggle of reporters and cameras in tow. He was more embarrassed about biting into a sausage roll at the event than learning new action songs.
“It’ll be about the way they present and how likeable they seem
He was also a bit big for the “special throne” at the kindy, but he embraced it. This matters because that’s what these next few weeks are going to be about. He loves the campaign trail, he loves politics and he’s in his element.
His opponent, National Party leader Christopher Luxon, is becoming more relaxed and seems to like it. But he hasn’t had years of practice like Hipkins.
Debate time
It's now just a month until the first head-to-head Your Vote 2023 debate between Hipkins and Luxon live on TVNZ1 and 1News.co.nz. Hipkins should be better at this. He’ll have been PM for nine months, is well practised at live TV and is across the details of his policies.
The advantage for Luxon though is that people won’t expect him to win which makes it a lot easier for him to impress.
When the two leaders are standing side by side voters will have a clear choice about who they want to be prime minister. It’ll be about the way they present and how likeable they seem.
The pair of them don’t just need to know their policies inside out, they also have to have good instincts because some of it will be off the cuff and it’s very raw doing 90 minutes of live television.
By then the numbers will be firming up with the polls also playing a part in the momentum.
I know I would say this but polls have a real impact on how political parties are feeling. And they matter even more in this election cycle.
Bad poll = bad day.
Good poll = great day.
But deeper still is the fact bad polls for Labour would mean a big chunk of its caucus wouldn’t be coming back to Parliament, making it a hard sell when you’re trying to rally the troops.
So, if it’s do or die time for Labour, expect an action packed few weeks before they down tools, ditch this place and head out for the campaign proper.
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