New Zealand's spy agency has named China, Iran and Russia as the three main countries conducting foreign interference in New Zealand.
It's part of the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service's (NZSIS) first comprehensive assessment on the threats of violent extremism, foreign interference and espionage facing New Zealand.
The report was precipitated by the March 15 2019 Christchurch terrorist attack and provides more detail on national security threats than anything previously reported at an unclassified level by the agency.
NZSIS director-general of security Andrew Hampton said being "more open" about national security meant New Zealand could develop a greater understanding and be better placed to manage risks.
“Competition between states is becoming more acute. This environment is prompting some states to seek advantage through subversive and dishonest means such as espionage and foreign interference against New Zealand and New Zealand’s interests.
“NZSIS is very clear that those responsible for the foreign interference threat are the states themselves and the people who act on their behalf. The vast majority of people who whakapapa to those countries are not the threat."
He said the analysis was not "about predicting what people or governments will do", but rather about "understanding the factors that motivate or drive particular choices" so the country could better prepare for present and future security threats.
Foreign states' interference
The report, titled New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment 2023, said while there were only a small number of states who conducted foreign interference in New Zealand, their "ability to cause harm is significant".
"The primary target remains the Government but now there are broader objectives that can see corporates, research institutions and government contractors in focus.
"NZSIS has detected interference activity from a number of foreign states. Most notable is the continued targeting of New Zealand’s diverse ethnic Chinese communities. We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China."
It said public and official awareness of the threat of foreign interference, as well as "strong policy responses" made it more difficult for states to conduct interference activities in New Zealand.
"Deliberate protective efforts to guard against the threat since 2016 have probably helped make interference more difficult, but will also be driving changes to how states carry out political and societal interference."
The report said NZSIS had also identified the Islamic Republic of Iran undertaking societal interference, including monitoring and providing reporting on Iranian communities and dissident groups.
“NZSIS has detected interference activity from a number of foreign states
"Globally, Iran has sought to silence dissenting Iranian voices in response to perceived threats to the Islamic Republic. Such activity has historically been unlikely in New Zealand, although the NZSIS continues to assess the threat in light of Iran’s increasingly aggressive behaviour internationally."
Strategic competition between states was contributing to unpredictability in the international security environment, it said, which was "evident in both a growing assertiveness from the People’s Republic of China and in international reactions to that assertiveness, as well as through largescale conflicts such as Russia’s illegal military invasion of Ukraine".
"NZSIS is aware of ongoing activity in and against New Zealand and our home region that is linked to the People's Republic of China’s intelligence services. This is a complex intelligence concern for New Zealand."
The report also named declining social trust, global economic instability, technological innovation and strategic competition between states as the four main factors influencing New Zealand's threat environment.
White supremacists dominate identity-motivated violent extremism
The report said the country's National Terrorism Threat Level, revised to "low" in November 2022, meant a terrorist attack in New Zealand was a "realistic possibility".
"There is a realistic possibility there are individuals in New Zealand who have the intent, and almost certainly have or could easily acquire the capability, to conduct a domestic terrorist attack. However, we are currently not aware of any specific or credible domestic attack planning – this includes by individuals or groups based outside of New Zealand.
"That assessment could change rapidly, and at any time."
The internet remained a "haven for inflammatory language and violent abuse" but most of those making threats were "unlikely to follow through" in the real world.
It said the last year saw the emergence - globally, including New Zealand - of individuals who explored a "range of extremist beliefs" without aligning to any one in particular.
Politically-motivated violent extremists had, since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, "integrated a broad range of grievances into existing anti-authority beliefs", including incorporating United States-specific ideas and events into New Zealand issues, such as references to First Amendment rights, it said.
That was despite the US Constitution's amendments having no application to New Zealand’s political system.
"Following the lifting of most Covid-19 mandates, politically-motivated violent extremism adherents have shifted focus to other domestic political issues and will highly likely look to exploit other polarising issues to further spread their beliefs."
Among identity-motivated violent extremists, white supremacists continued to dominate in New Zealand, it said, with young people's involvement a "growing trend".
White identity-motivated violent extremists expressed views including but not limited to those against Jewish and Muslim people, Rainbow communities, and Māori.
Attack-related propaganda, including the Christchurch terrorist’s manifesto and live stream footage are regularly shared among the group, it said.
Faith-motivated violent extremists were "a very small number of known individuals", with those based in New Zealand expressing support for the Islamic State of Iraq and ISIS (referred to as ISIL in the report) and "similar groups" but it had "significantly decreased in recent years".
The role of misinformation and the internet
The report said state-generated misinformation was not always targeted towards New Zealand or New Zealand-based people specifically, but was still consumed by New Zealanders.
"This information often references political and security-related events overseas to exploit pre-existing differences in society and is generated and disseminated to discredit competing world views and values.
"While not the only cause of an individual’s radicalisation towards violent extremism, there is a realistic possibility it contributes to the process by further entrenching mistrust and grievances."
The Covid-19 pandemic had played a role in social fragmentation, disconnection and polarisation in New Zealand and internationally.
"New Zealanders’ trust in government, politicians, and fellow citizens remains high, especially when compared to global levels. There are signs, however, that trust levels are possibly diminishing and by some measures trust in the media is now below the global average. Because of New Zealand’s traditionally high levels of trust, a decline is more noticeable."
It said social discontent provided a unique opportunity for foreign states to conduct interference activity, including leveraging social tensions or disagreements in society to their advantage.
"Misinformation and disinformation is often pitched in a way that makes the consumer feel they have special knowledge, or know the 'real truth'.
READ MORE: Misinformation victims are often vulnerable - anti-conspiracist
"It can even foster a sense of community or common purpose, as was evidenced over the past two years by those who seized on various conspiracy theories to unify their opposition to government Covid-19 responses."
It said while mis- and disinformation were "unwelcome forces" in the information environment, they were not considered threats in and of themselves.
"In most instances the information will fail to gain traction beyond niche and often insular audiences. Nonetheless, its presence can foster grievances over time that, left unchecked, can make our communities more vulnerable to violent extremism and foreign interference."
Radicalisation often occurred in "online echo chambers" that become a person’s main source of information.
"In these online communities, which often cut across national borders, likeminded people share material and ideas that justify their support for violence.
"Members encourage people towards uncritical thinking, which disregards alternate solutions or explanations.
"The nature of these communities build a sense of belonging that strengthen one’s loyalty to the ideology. This, in turn, enhances radicalisation and in exceptional cases, the path leads to mobilisation to violence."
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