Brodie Retallick will travel to the World Cup with a ruptured posterior cruciate ligament while Sam Whitelock will go with a dodgy Achilles – spin it anyway you like but in taking only four locks to France the All Blacks are rolling the dice.
The odd thing about Ian Foster taking 18 forwards and 15 backs is that he could easily have taken a fifth lock – the highly-regarded Josh Lord - along with Retallick, Whitelock, Sam Barrett and Tupou Vai’i, making it a 19/14 split which South Africa and England have gone for. Ireland and France have yet to name their squads.
Either Caleb Clarke or Emoni Narawa could have made way for Lord, as the All Blacks appear well resourced in terms of wings with the in-form Leicester Fainga’anuku, Mark Telea and Will Jordan named.
Do they need both Clarke and rookie Narawa? The latter could provide a surprise factor a la Nehe Milner-Skudder in the United Kingdom in 2015 but while there is no doubting his power when he’s in form, Clarke, in particular, appears fortunate to make the 33-man squad.
It’s odd, too, that Lord hasn’t been included as injury cover like halfback Brad Weber, loose forward Samipeni Finau and uncapped hooker George Bell, a trio that will travel and train separately to the squad as per World Rugby protocols.
Should Whitelock hurt himself in the sold-out warm-up Test against South Africa at Twickenham on August 26, Lord would presumably hop on a plane, but that would leave the All Blacks seriously light at lock for the opener against France in Paris on September 9 given Retallick won’t be available until the third pool game against Italy on September 30.
Loose forward Shannon Frizell can cover lock but he is hitting such heights in the No.6 jersey it would be a backwards step to force him into the second row.
Similarly, Finau could do a job there if required, but the important games will require specialists in this area as France, South Africa and Ireland will field huge packs worthy of total respect and commitment.
Scott Barrett, for instance, appeared to be the answer at blindside flanker last year but such is his form at lock in 2023 the selectors have likely firmly closed the door on that option.
And then there’s Weber – travelling as cover but worthy of much more than that.
All things going to plan, Finlay Christie and Cam Roigard will likely start and finish respectively in the All Blacks’ final pool game against Uruguay on October 6 as the selectors will want to keep Aaron Smith safe for the quarter-final a week later, but they can’t protect him completely.
What happens, for instance, if Smith pulls a hamstring at training during that week?
Would the selectors back the inexperienced Christie and Roigard to do the job against the defending champion Springboks or world No.1 Ireland in the quarter-final?
No chance – Weber would likely be quickly drafted in as the starting No.9, but that begs the question: why is there no room for him in the squad?
Sir Steve Hansen feels there’s no risk in taking Retallick due to the 32-year-old’s experience and quality. That's probably true but the 34-year-old Whitelock’s Achilles remains an unknown quantity.
After the 2019 World Cup semifinal defeat to England, Hansen expressed regret over several decisions, including not selecting the ultra-consistent Ben Smith, who was playing in his final tournament.
This selection group, headed by Foster, has been notoriously risk averse so they’ve picked an odd time to gamble ahead of their last hurrah.
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