Analysis: Q+A's Jack Tame says the inevitable circus of Trump on trial will remind Biden's supporters not what they voted for, but what they voted against.
Minutes after the major TV networks finally projected Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 US election, I ran to the White House to film the growing crowd cheering and celebrating outside.
It was a party. People drank from champagne bottles and held banners mocking the outgoing president. People danced. The Nipsey Hussle Song, FDT, distorted over straining speakers.
"F**k Donald Trump! duh nuuuh..."
The spirit that morning in Washington D.C typified much of the reaction to the election result among those who'd been hoping for a Democrat victory. It was not a celebration of Biden's triumph. Most of the partiers were not holding pictures of Biden's likeness or cheering his name. After four chaotic years, it was a celebration of Donald Trump's defeat.
The indictment leveled against Trump this week makes for the most significant criminal charges facing the former president. Trump is accused of repeating false claims of election fraud and of fuelling the January 6 assault on the US Capitol.
For many, the charges will simply add to a hairball of legal issues already faced by the former president. Trump faces criminal charges in Florida and New York for the alleged mishandling of classified documents and a hush-money scheme. He faces multiple civil suits and may be charged with additional crimes in Georgia.
But the nature of this week's indictment — the most serious of the lot — means federal prosecutors will seek to try Trump before next year's election. It's certain the former president's lawyers will be fighting civil cases for alleged fraud and defamation between the Republican debates, the Iowa Caucuses, and Super Tuesday. American voters now face the increased likelihood of a former US president simultaneously defending himself on serious federal charges while campaigning for the Oval Office.
So will it help or hurt his election prospects?
Trump's previous indictments have galvanised his support among Republican voters. With each and every new case, Trump plays the martyr. As the number of his legal challenges has increased this year, so too has his polling lead over fellow Republican candidates. At the start of April, shortly before his first criminal indictment, Trump led his closest Republican rival by less than 20%. Today, his lead has almost doubled to 38%.
But winning the Republican nomination and winning the presidential election are different prospects. A federal trial with blanket coverage of the former president leading up to November 2024 might intensify support among his base while simultaneously invigorating his opposition.
For many Americans, Biden's presidency has not been particularly inspiring. But the return to relative convention in the White House has served as a collective Xanax for those exhausted by the constant noise and outrage of the previous four years.
The inevitable circus of Trump on trial will remind Biden's supporters not what they voted for, but what they voted against.
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