Antarctic sea ice is at a shocking low this winter, collapsing to an amount far below anything recorded in the last 40 years.
The fall is so dramatic it exceeds even the worst predictions from climate scientists. It is 20% lower this year than any other year on record, stretching right back to 1980.
Victoria University of Wellington professor Tim Naish said the ice has failed to form to the same extent it normally does over winter. He described the situation as "off the charts".
"It's completely outside the statistical range we would expect, you wouldn't predict this level of sea ice based on the historic record," the climate scientist said.
"The statisticians say this is like a one-in-a-seven-billion chance. You'd have more chance of winning Lotto than have correctly predicted the sea ice extent we've got this year."
It's 20% lower this year than any other year on record, stretching right back to 1980. (Source: 1News)
His comments come as dozens of climate scientists meet in Christchurch for the New Zealand-Australia Antarctic Science Conference — with sea ice one of the main worries on the mind of attendees.
Richard Levy, a principal scientist at GNS Science, warned the planet was losing an importance defence in the battle against climate change.
Sea ice helps cool the planet, as it reflects the sun's rays.
"The more white that we have covering the surface of the earth, the more the sunlight is able to reflect back to space," Levy said.
"So, if we lose sea ice, the planet absorbs more heat, which means it heats up even more, which has a feedback on the melting of the ice sheet itself."
There are three main types of ice in Antarctica: sea ice, ice shelves and the ice sheet, which covers the Antarctic mainland. If the ice sheet goes into the ocean, it will have a dramatic effect on sea level rise.
"As the planet warms, as the sea ice gets smaller in extent, the ice shelves are next," Levy said.
"The ice shelves are really important because they buffer the large ice sheets sitting on the land behind them, and they slow the flow of that ice into the ocean, and therefore slow down the amount melt and sea level rise that will result from that melt."
The concern is deeply held amongst the scientific community in Australia too.
"I'm feeling quite worried, I mean I've been a climate scientist for a while now, so I've been worried for a long time," said Tessa Vance, a climate scientist at the University of Tasmania, who is also attending the conference in Christchurch.
"Coming to an event like this reminds us all of how big these problems are. You really hope they're not insurmountable."
Questions are now being asked as to whether the ice will ever come back to historical levels, or whether it is the beginning of a irreversible process.
In the meantime, the only thing we can do — according to Naish — is "deep, rapid and immediate" greenhouse gas reductions.
Scientists warning it's not too late to act, but it soon will be.
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