Hotter and windier weather is expected across the country in the next three months, according to NIWA's latest seasonal outlook.
The forecaster's predictions cover the period between August and October as an average of conditions across all three months.
Temperatures are likely to be hotter than normal in all regions except in the Upper North Island, which includes Auckland, Northland, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty.
The area has a 50% chance of above-average temperatures, a 45% chance of near-average temperatures, and a 5% chance of below-average temperatures.
But there's an 85% chance that rainfall will be below average or near average for the already-sodden region.
Parts of the region faced major damage from both Cyclone Gabrielle and Auckland with its Anniversary Weekend January floods.
Occasional heavy rainfall is predicted by NIWA for the South Island and western North Island during late August.
Meanwhile, wind speeds look to be stronger than normal — particularly across the South Island and lower North Island.
NIWA added that its forecast confidence for rainfall is medium, while its confidence in temperature forecasts was medium-to-high.
"A colder than average three-month period is unlikely, due in part to ongoing marine heatwave conditions near the South Island and lower North Island," the forecaster said.
"El Niño is expected to have a growing influence on rainfall patterns in the coming months. More frequent westerly winds will favour low-pressure systems crossing the South Island, bringing occasional heavy rainfall to western areas in particular."
NIWA’s outlooks indicate the likelihood of conditions being above or below average for the season as a whole, relative to the 1991-2020 average.
SHARE ME