Labour hasn’t had a strong start to its campaign with back-to-back blunders in its youth justice announcements and an average poll result to boot.
Until now Labour’s campaign strategy has been about ruling things out rather than announcing what it’ll do.
The prime minister was meant to glide off the plane from Lithuania hungry for some campaign ra-ra but instead his party has stumbled through the week.
“In it for you” is the new campaign slogan, but they’re not really “in it” when it comes to campaigning yet.
These are the red marks.
Our latest 1News Verian poll showed Labour dipping two percentage points. In each poll this year it has been slowing ticking down - 38 in January, 36 in March, 35 in May and 33 in the latest July poll.
Both major parties - National and Labour - saw a drop in their party vote support, with minor parties picking up the scraps. (Source: 1News)
The only caveat is that National didn’t capitalise on Labour’s struggles and went down by two as well.
Adding to the concern is the preferred prime minister numbers, with the gap between the Chris' tightening. Chris Hipkins has a slim lead with 24%, with Christopher Luxon sitting on 20%.
Labour made a mistake announcing its plan for youth justice on Monday. It announced a new offence for people who use youth to commit crimes rather than just an aggravating factor in sentencing. Mistakes happen but it makes things looked rushed. Technically it’s a government announcement but this close and this rushed I think we can put it into the campaign pile.
Just last week, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins ruled out introducing a capital gains tax under his leadership. (Source: 1News)
There was also confusion and a lack of details with its youth justice plan on Tuesday. On Wednesday they succeeded with its third youth justice announcement but it can’t afford two practice runs.
Simmering in the background was a harsh report into former Minister Michael Wood over the failure to organise his shares properly, again reminding the public of the ministerial mishaps. He isn’t a minister anymore but the issue is still haunting his party.
This week has not been ideal but there’s a chance to turn it around.
In the coming days Labour is set to announce its plan for tax. It could be a vote winner with 12% of voters not sure or refusing to say who they’ll vote for in our poll. There isn’t a wealth or capital gains tax but Labour knows it has to demonstrate “In it for you” to its voter base.
The 1News poll shows it’s not just Revenue Minister David Parker who is “disappointed”. Fifty-two percent of people we polled supported a capital gains tax on rental property, 37% opposed and 11% didn’t know or refused to say.
Interestingly those voters who are more likely to support a capital gains tax are Green supporters - 73%, Labour supporters - 62%, or are aged over 70 – 62%. On the flip side those likely to oppose a CGT on a rental property are ACT supporters – 50%, National supporters – 49%, and people aged 35-54 – 62%.
National’s approach has been to sprinkle policies like grass seeds, hoping some will take. There's already been 27 policies, with more still to come.
The trouble is the plethora of policies so far out makes it harder for the public to engage and get excited and by the time the campaign proper starts National may not have much left to try and set the agenda. The wider public aren’t heavily engaged in politics until the last few weeks so that’s why most parties wait for anything substantive.
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