Poll: Slim majority of voters want capital gains tax on rentals

A slim majority of voters want to see capital gains taxes on rental properties, a new poll shows.

However, there is firm opposition to a capital gains tax on the family home.

Between July 8 and July 12 the 1News Verian poll asked eligible voters if they opposed or supported capital gains being taxed when people sold rental properties.

Of those polled, 52% said they supported it, 37% said they opposed it, while the remaining 11% said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

The poll also asked if respondents opposed or supported capital gains being taxed when people sold the family home.

Just 16% of respondents said they supported it, 75% said they opposed it and the remaining 9% didn’t know or refused to answer.

Last week, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins ruled out a capital gains tax or wealth tax under his leadership.

Today, his view remained unchanged, saying he believed now was not the time for “radical changes to our tax system”.

“New Zealanders, repeatedly, over several electoral cycles have made it clear that they don’t support big new taxes like a capital gains tax or a wealth tax.

“They’ve had the opportunity to vote for them in the past and they haven’t done that.

“Now’s actually the time for some consolidation.

“The economic going is tough out there, it isn’t the time for massive changes to our tax system.”

He said the Labour Government had already made a number of changes to reduce untaxed gains by property speculators, such as extending the Brightline test to 10 years.

National leader Christopher Luxon said his party did not support capital gains tax.

“Increasing taxes is not your way out of a recession.”

He said capital gains taxes on landlords “only leads to higher rents”.

“That doesn’t help people in a cost of living crisis.

“New Zealanders can work out for themselves that actually, ultimately, capital gains tax will put a wrecking ball through our country.”

Green Party co-leader James Shaw said he was unsurprised by the poll result, as Green Party polling showed most New Zealanders wanted a “fairer tax system” which included capital gains tax on investment properties.

“We have one of the least-fair tax systems in the world.

“It’s distortionary in the economy and it means that the government doesn’t collect the revenue it needs to be able to solve some of the great challenges, like lifting all of those families that are still below the poverty line up above that line.”

He said he hoped the poll would be a wake up call for Hipkins but the major parties had repeatedly “made decisions against the weight of evidence and against the weight of public opinion”.

Shaw said there was no political party that advocated for a capital gains tax on the family home.

“There’s no political appetite for that and the population doesn’t support it.

Victoria University of Wellington political scientist Lara Greaves said 52% of people supporting a capital gains tax on rental properties was “somewhat of a mandate, but probably not a clear mandate”.

She said it was clear people didn’t support tax on the family home.

“It’s one thing to tax people who own multiple homes or trusts or rental properties that seems to be a different category of people than the family home which people seem to think should be protected.”

“There’s a lot of support for those ‘mum and dad’ type investors… versus those who are buying homes, are leveraging, are trying to invest and make money off peoples’ housing.”

Greaves said she had been “quite surprised” when Hipkins ruled out tax changes last week.

Possible changes were “foreshadowed” by the high-wealth individuals research project report, which found New Zealand’s richest families paid a lower effective tax rate - over their whole income - than middle-income earners, she said.

“A lot of people were expecting some kind of wealth tax to pair with that.”

She said National would continue attack lines on tax and the purported instability of the “coalition of chaos” - a possible Labour / Greens / Te Pāti Māori government.

“This election, it’s really hard to differentiate Labour from National. They’re both battling for the centre and at the moment, Labour seems to be taking the position, ‘well, we’re not National’ and National’s saying, ‘well, we’re not Labour’.

“I think that’s what ruling out the tax comes back to… we’ve got these parties competing for that centre ground and they’re doing what they think will appeal to that group.

“I suspect voter turnout will be down as well because there isn’t that positive hope for the future that we’ve seen in previous elections. We know that when it looks like it will be a bit more positive, that’s when we tend to see turnout.”

She said a close clash might also assist voter turnout, however, and that tussle was likely.

Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (52%) to support a capital gains tax on rental properties included Green party supporters (73%), Labour party supporters (62%) and people aged 70+ (62%).

Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (37%) to oppose a capital gains tax on rental properties included Act Party supporters (50%), National Party supporters (49%) and people aged 35 to 54 (42%).

Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (16%) to support a capital gains tax on family homes included Green Party supporters (34%), men aged 18 to 34 (29%) and those with an annual household income between $30,001 and $70,000 (21%).

Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (75%) to oppose a capital gains tax on family homes included Act Party supporters (94%), people aged 55+ (85%), and National Party supporters (82%).

Between July 8 and July 12, 2023, 1000 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.