National and ACT have come out on top in a second 1News Verian poll in a row, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
The latest 1News Verian poll, released tonight, shows the 2023 election remains on a knife-edge, with the National-ACT bloc on 61 seats - just enough to secure power - and the left bloc on 59.
National leader Christopher Luxon also managed to gain ground in the preferred prime minister stakes, rising to 20%, up two points from May. Labour leader Chris Hipkins was on 24%, down one point.
Both major parties - National and Labour - saw a drop in their party vote support, with minor parties picking up the scraps. (Source: 1News)
Both major parties - National and Labour - saw a drop in their party vote support, with minor parties picking up the scraps.
National was on 35%, down two points, and Labour on 33%, also down two points.
The ACT party attracted 12% of the party vote in the poll - up one point - the Greens bouncing back three points to 10% and Te Pāti Māori and New Zealand First were on 3%.
The Opportunities Party was on 2%, while Democracy NZ, Freedoms NZ and ONE were on 1% each. The remaining 12% didn’t know or refused to answer.
In the House, that translated to 46 seats for National and 15 for ACT, reaching the magic number of 61 to govern.
Labour’s party vote translated to 43 seats, and even with the Green Party contributing 12 seats and Te Pāti Māori four seats, it fell short at 59 seats total.
Of the 1000 eligible voters polled between July 8 and 12, 24% said Chris Hipkins was their preferred prime minister, 1% less than the last poll.
ACT leader David Seymour was the preferred prime minister for 7%, and NZ First leader Winston Peters and Green Party MP Chlöe Swarbrick for 2%.
National deputy leader Nicola Willis and former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern were the preferred prime ministers for 1% of those asked.
The lead up to the polling period included National’s June 18 announcement it would make gang membership an aggravating factor in sentencing, Labour announcing a market study on banking competition on June 20 and Michael Wood resigning as a minister on June 21.
It also followed Minister Kiri Allan facing questions over “working relationships” with her in her office, and the Privileges Committee finding Education Minister Jan Tinetti had misled Parliament by not correcting incorrect statements in Parliament as soon as she could, but not deliberately.
The poll followed Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ trade delegation to China and coincided with his trip to Europe to sign a free trade deal with the EU.
Verian was previously Kantar Public.
Party vote
National - 35% (down 2%)
Labour - 33% (down 2%)
ACT - 12% (up 1%)
Green - 10% (up 3%)
New Zealand First - 3% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori - 2.4% (up 1%)
The Opportunities Party - 2% (up 1%)
Seats in the House
Assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki:
National - 46 seats
Labour - 43 seats
ACT - 15 seats
Green - 12 seats
Te Pāti Māori - 4 seats
See the full poll results and methodology here.
Between July 8 and July 12, 2023, 1000 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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