Analysis: It feels a bit hostile, a bit grouchy and a bit messy. I’ve covered politics since 2006 and this election feels different.
Of course, in election year, it’s normal for tensions at Parliament to be running high. There’s building pressure on political parties to control the narrative and that makes everything a bit tense. With only three months to the election now, staffers are certainly feeling the pressure. Media are under scrutiny (like we should be) too.
But it’s more than this. Everyone is going into the election season shattered. It’s not like in previous years where everyone has been hungrily waiting for the election campaign to crank up.
For Labour alone, there’s been a new prime minister, new Cabinet, four ministerial scandals, an MP defecting to another party, a meaty Budget, and the prime minister has been to a coronation in the UK, to China for a week and to Lithuania for a NATO summit. It’s such a list that I almost want to end it with “and a partridge in a pear tree”.
We’re not done yet, either. There are still six sitting weeks left for Parliament before the campaign officially gets underway. Really, though, it’s already underway for all of the political parties except Labour.
Once the prime minister is back from Lithuania at the end of the week it’ll be hard for him to stay in governing mode – I think we’ll see him make the switch. He might feel he needs to. After all, Christopher Luxon has been doing selfies from every corner of New Zealand this week while the prime minister has been posting from Europe. One is definitely in prime minister mode. One is in campaign mode to become prime minister.
Still, Labour is certainly trying to control the narrative, with the election mind. Labour has ruled out campaigning on a wealth tax or a capital gains tax, despite considering it in the lead up to the May Budget, even though it had said it wouldn’t bring in any new taxes. It’s the prime minister playing it safe. Chris Hipkins saw Jacinda Ardern get slammed in 2017 over the idea of a capital gains tax and isn’t willing to risk that happening to him.
If we were in a better economic environment it may be a different story, but as things stand he’s nervous to take that political risk. Many of the Labour base will be disappointed by this move, but it does change National’s ability to slap Labour around over tax issues. National will now have to play up the fact Labour considered the tax but ruled it out – that’s not as strong.
National are also acutely aware about perceptions and narratives around Christopher Luxon. He is auditioning to be prime minister and whether people like him is going to play a part in who they vote for. There are examples of sensitivities that wouldn’t be the case if we weren’t so close to the election and so close in the polls.
ACT, The Greens and Te Pati Māori are also in an interesting position. All are clamouring for coverage, and all are clamouring to add flavour to the next government. But none of their leaders will be prime minister so there is a different test for all of them. There is less attention on every nuance of their policies and less attention on them as people. They’ll have a say but won’t be in the driving seat.
Add to all of this the fact that the polls are tight. Political parties rely on volunteers to go our door knocking, put up hoardings, give up their time at rallies – some won’t do that if they think their party isn’t going to win.
Controlling the narrative is always important in politics but political careers will be won or lost on it over the next few weeks.
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