A downswing in the housing market continues to roll on, albeit unpredictably, as property values across Aotearoa fell in June, according to CoreLogic's house price index.
The monthly rate of decline accelerated, down 1.2% compared to a 0.7% fall in May.
Data showed the monthly decline was led by weaker figures in Auckland, which was down 3% for the month, with four out of six main centres recording larger falls in June.
None of the other five main centres saw values shift by more than 0.6% either way.
Christchurch had the largest increase over the month (0.3%), while Tauranga also saw values increase 0.1%, though values remain 3.4% down over the past three months.
CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall said the latest data could be a "speed bump" for expectations the housing downturn has already ended.
However, the "variable results evident across the country are likely supportive of the argument that a housing market trough is not far away".
He said the acceleration in falls illustrates the impact of a long and strong rate hiking cycle as stretched mortgage affordability continued to constrain demand in the market.
Goodall added that the only consistent trend for prices this year was the "inconsistency", with the monthly rate of change regularly dipping and recovering.
But he opined: "Nonetheless, we still believe it appears the worst of the downturn is generally over for most areas.
"It’s just as easy to find pockets of high demand and strong sales as it is to find a property which has been languishing on the market before being discounted. What the data is telling us is that housing market conditions remain diverse. While some markets may be moving through a trough in the cycle, others may have further to decline."
The nationwide average house value remains $183,000 higher than pre-pandemic levels in March 2020.
The research head said October’s general election provides yet another unknown for the market alongside the Reserve Bank's decision-making process for the OCR at its July meeting.
“Recent data, including improved confidence, a buoyant labour market and reducing inflation expectations all points to RBNZ holding true to their intention of leaving the OCR at 5.5%,” Goodall said.
"That will be welcome news for mortgage holders continuing to roll off lower mortgage interest rates over the coming months."
Auckland
A fall of 5.1% in the Auckland City area, which predominantly includes the central isthmus area, might look "alarming", but Goodall said it was important to "stress caution over judging a short-term measure in a volatile market".
"Auckland City had experienced a much more balanced market in the prior three months, tracking sideways (-0.1%) in what looked to be a consolidation period, which is also reflected in the annual rate of decline being the smallest of the Auckland areas (-10.8%),” he said.
"While caution should be taken with reading too much into a single month measure, it also shouldn’t be ignored. This may be a sign of an increasing number of sellers being encouraged to accept a lower price after having their property on the market for a while, or could reflect a change in circumstance. Either way, we’ll be watching future sales performance closely for any increased signs of vendor struggles."
There were also lower prices across the rest of Auckland with each area recording a fall in values of more than 3% over the past three months, with the Rodney District the only area to see minimal change over the month (-0.1%), according to CoreLogic.
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