With days left until this year's census officially wraps up, the Statistics Minister isn't sure the Government will hit its 90% target for participation rates — particularly for Māori and Pasifika. That's despite an increased budget and a promise to improve after the botched 2018 census. So what's happened?
Filling out pages of paperwork isn't what you'd typically expect from a visit to the local park.
Yet that's what happened last weekend at the Auckland suburb of Randwick Park, just east of Manurewa.
It's been more than three months since Census Day but people still have until Friday afternoon to post or complete it online. In a last-ditch effort by Stats NZ to boost census participation rates in South Auckland, and Māori and Pasifika in the city, it enlisted the help of Manurewa Marae and Whānau Ora.
The organisations' pitch went like this: We'll help you get counted, and you'll get a supermarket voucher, doughnuts, hāngī, coffee, and a care pack while the kids can enjoy the bouncy castles nearby. One mother Q+A spoke to said it was what got her to look out the window and take the whānau out, not realising what the event was about at first.
"The only thing that's really stopped me from filling in the census is fear. Fear of not knowing if this going to be helpful for me and my community," she said.
Unofficial turnout rates, calculated from the number of forms Stats NZ has received from individuals compared to the number of people the agency thinks were in the area on Census Day, show about 89% of all people in New Zealand have done the census.
That means nearly 60,000 more people need to complete it if the Government is to hit its 90% target. Based on the current trajectory, that isn't likely in the next five days.
According to data released to Q+A, the return rate drops to approximately 75% for Māori — higher than the record-low of 68% in the 2018 census but still well below this year's target.
For Pasifika, the rate is at about 79%. It's 14 percentage points higher than the 2018 response rate but below 90%.
Minister unsure about 90% target
Speaking to Q+A, Statistics Minister Deborah Russell said Stats NZ was still hoping to hit the 90% target nationwide but added, "we'll have to wait and see".
Because the estimated return rates are based on raw numbers, she said officials won't know for sure if it had met or missed its target until next year, once post-census surveys are completed.
"I'm not going to stake my job on a number we don't know yet," Russell said in response to her comments in March that she would "absolutely" be willing to stake her position on hitting 90%, but that it would a "step too far" to resign.
The then-Government Statistician resigned after an independent review of the 2018 census. That year, only 83% of people filled out and severely undercounted Māori and Pasifika. That had implications for decisions like electorate boundaries and health funding. It also led to unreliable population counts for iwi.
"In terms of thinking about why we've had those lower rates, there will be a whole lot of reasons," Russell said.
"When we've talked to people from our Pasifika communities, it's been things like people not understanding the census or perhaps needing someone... to do it with them in person.
"We've needed to do a whole lot of community outreach. We've done that, but maybe we could have done more."
She added: "Perhaps we could have done more visiting churches earlier on."
Russell said it's "hard to know exactly why" Māori census return rates weren't higher.
She said Stats NZ had involved Māori "involved from the design of the census right from the start". The agency also asked Te Tai Tokerau, Te Tai Rāwhiti, and Te Whānau-ā-Apanui to lead the census process in their regions.
Regardless of return rates, Russell said Stats NZ could still achieve a "coverage rate" of close to 98%. She said this was more important than the raw number of forms sent back to Stats NZ.
Coverage rates describe how well census responses, combined with existing data about people from other government agencies and previous censuses, give a picture of the population.
Census 2023 was designed with this combined model from the outset, in contrast to 2018 where data was pulled from other sources only after officials realised response numbers were low. It may be part of the reason why 2023's census has a lower minimum target of 90% than previous years', which were in the mid-90s.
Why are numbers so low?
Manurewa Marae's Hilda Peters said one of the major barriers for Māori filling out the census is the lack of trust in how their data will be used.
Some of that lack of trust stems from history. Early censuses in the mid-1850s counted Māori and the settler population separately. Up until 1986, censuses required Māori to declare their blood quantum — a European approach that conflicted with the way tangata whenua understood themselves and pushed assimilation among those "less than half".
Peters said family events are a proven model developed throughout the Covid-19 vaccination effort in South Auckland.
"Manurewa Marae has created trust in the community due to Covid. When no one else came out to these communities... we were that Māori organisation that came out and built relationships and connections with whānau out here. Which is why, in turn, they turn out to events."
Three years ago, then-Statistics Minister James Shaw announced a $210 million budget for Census 2023 — an increase from the $126 million for 2018's census.
In February this year, Stats NZ said it was expecting it to cost $260 million, off the back of a funding injection from the Government to try and ensure a high turnout. After Cyclone Gabrielle, the figure had blown out to $317 million.
The increased funding went towards doubling the number of census collection staff from 2018, more advertising — some of which was targeted at Pasifika and Māori — more paper forms, and efforts in cyclone-hit areas.
According to National's statistics spokesperson Simon Watts, at least $1 million had also been spent "trying to bribe people to fill in their forms".
Of that, at least $175,000 had been spent on supermarket and petrol vouchers for thousands of people who had filled out the census, and more than $150,000 had been budgeted for free Warriors tickets.
In May, ACT's statistics spokesperson Damien Smith questioned the Statistics Minister in the House about the fairness of incentivising and rewarding people who'd filled in their forms late.
Russell responded: "We are getting to the stage where we need those last few responses in order to get a viable and robust response. That is why we are taking whatever steps necessary to ensure that people do the census, and if that takes promotions and the like, then that is what we will do in order to get the census completed."
By the end of Manurewa Marae's four-hour event, dozens — and even a police officer in uniform — filled out their census forms.
Peters said Stats NZ should have partnered with grassroots organisations earlier in the census process to deliver tailored initiatives from the start, saving time and money.
"When you go on to marae, you give a koha. It's the same thing. We're coming into their neighbourhood, so we're giving food to say thank you," she said.
"For whānau, when you do go into their space, especially their living spaces, it's intrusive. They would have got so many knocks on their door for them to fill their forms out.
"So, let's not continue to do that and let's do events like this. They, then, feel comfortable."
'We had to show communities we cared'
The Statistics Minister said the other reason it wasn't clear if the Government was going to hit its target was because "Cyclone Gabrielle blew right through the census collection".
Annette Papuni-McLellan leads the locally-led taskforce Te Ahu Kauawhi, which Stats NZ pulled together after the cyclone devastated communities across the east of the North Island.
Papuni-McLellan, too, wasn't sure if the region would reach a 90% response rate given all that had happened.
Hawke's Bay and Gisborne have some of the lowest response rates of any region in New Zealand.
But Papuni-McLellan wouldn't have done anything differently.
"[Te Ahu Kauawhi] had to show communities we cared, that we weren't there to add another layer of challenge, stress, or grief for them because they were already going through enough," she said.
"I always said from day one it's a careful, considered approach, however that looks.
"That's why I was never going to give a target figure for that response rate. We were going to raise it as much as we can."
Papuni-McLellan said that meant delaying collecting forms and allowing staff to take time off work to volunteer in their communities while still getting paid. It was only when the team felt the time was right that they started reaching out to their communities about the census.
"We've had challenges, externally, with people who don't want to talk about the census or think about it.
"But I can hand on heart say these communities have received us with a lot of care."
Pasifika census numbers also lagging
Back in South Auckland, the consequences of a lack of high-quality data are on the minds of those at Pacific health provider South Seas.
Te Whatu Ora said the disestablished Counties Manukau DHB lost $130 million in health funding over the past four years because of the area's low turnout in the 2018 census.
Numbers are lagging behind in the same areas this year.
South Seas Healthcare chief executive Lemalu Silao Vaisola-Sefo said people need to get better at explaining the importance of the census.
He said the Pacific families his organisation worked with had other, more pressing priorities than filling out the census. Some also faced language barriers and there was a lack of trust about where their information would go.
Over a three-day South Seas-hosted event in Manukau earlier this month, just over 3000 people came out to fill out their census. South Seas also partnered with other health providers to vaccinate 500 people against Covid-19, the flu, and measles.
The health provider pooled $18,000 from businesses and donors to put towards 22 local groups like schools and churches. People could then earn points to put towards the groups' fundraising by filling out their census and connecting with health services.
Lemalu said including other aspects to South Seas' census event was a deliberate choice, based on what they'd learnt during Covid-19.
"Our experience as a community provider is that you can't focus on that particular thing, like the census. It's got to be 'whole family' events.
"What you'll find is that if you approach it that way, people will bring onboard other people."
Lemalu said the fact South Seas had been in the community for nearly 25 years meant people trusted those running the event.
His only criticism was Stats NZ not asking to partner earlier. But, once they reached out, Lemalu said he had a good relationship with the agency as it gave South Seas the support to do things the way they knew worked for their community.
"Three thousand in three days. It's not a bad record. Imagine what we could have done if we had longer."
Paying to get into communities
Buttabean Motivation founder Dave Letele, who is considering standing for Te Pāti Māori at this year's election, told Local Democracy Reporting in April simply throwing money at the census turnout problem, when the issue was a lack of trust, wasn't going to fix things.
Part of the reason behind the inflated price tag for this year's census efforts was because of a 48-strong "engagement team" stood up within Stats NZ, made up of "engagement specialists" with existing links to hard-to-reach communities. Senior staff within the team were hired at salaries of at least $91,000 a year.
Eva Chen was hired as an advisor by Stats NZ to work with Asian and migrant communities in Auckland. Chen founded Wellbeing Charitable Trust in 2014 to deliver social services tailored to Asian communities.
Chen said her existing relationships and the trust she had already built meant she could get into places to talk about the census that others couldn't.
Nationwide, about 92% of people of Asian descent have returned a census form — higher than the estimated national rate of 89%. It's an 11 percentage point improvement from the Asian response rate of 81% in 2018.
Chen said part of the reason behind the higher rate was a tendency toward compliance in some Asian communities, with a potential $2000 fine for not completing the census.
"I've been hearing this [from community groups] at various times, that this is the first census ever they've been reached out by a census team that is willing to engage in ways they feel comfortable, in the way that appreciates their culture, that respects their differences."
In response to criticism that Stats NZ could have connected with community organisations sooner, Chen said some of the earliest partnerships were formed from February last year, and that timing depended on the group.
She said the relatively small engagement team of six in Auckland meant "we're going to miss out some, as much as we try".
Chen said, after 2018's census, Stats NZ had realised the importance of working at a grassroots level.
Meanwhile, other census workers continue their stoush with the recruiter PSK, who was awarded a $43 million contract to hire census workers.
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