Analysis: Chris Hipkins walks the diplomatic tightrope on a trade-focused trip to China, says Political Editor Jessica Mutch McKay.
A brown, feathered flightless bird and a scaly roaring red dragon. It’s not a natural friendship but somehow it works.
The Prime Minister is on route to China now and will spend a week in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai.
This trip matters because China is our biggest trading partner. We export about $20 billion a year - a third of our export market - and import a touch less.
Making sure the path is smooth for Kiwi businesses is therefore what this trip, the first to China by our prime minister since before Covid, is all about.
He’s the first leader in the Five Eyes intelligence group to visit since the Covid pandemic. (Source: 1News)
Travelling with Chris Hipkins is the biggest delegation ever for an overseas trip, including representatives from Fonterra, Air New Zealand, Sealord and Zespri. Also on the plane are the winning Te Matatini Kapa Haka group and a large media delegation.
As well as established brands showing their ongoing commitment to China, several companies are also looking to expand. Industries like gaming and health and wellbeing are just emerging markets with the Asian giant - but they offer huge potential.
Gaming is a $400 million industry in New Zealand, employing 1000 people. Experts reckon that could double which some attention on the Chinese market.
Trade expert Charles Finny explains Chinese companies sometimes need support from the Chinese government to do deals, so being part of the New Zealand Prime Minister’s delegation is seen as a rubber stamp and opens doors for them.
But it isn’t all about trade. The relationship matters diplomatically as well and New Zealand is getting special treatment on this trip.
Hipkins locked-in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping two weeks out, giving him rare facetime with one of the most powerful men in the world. In contrast US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken only confirmed a meeting hours before it happened - a diplomatic powerplay by China.
NZ's firsts with China
I interviewed the Chinese Ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong this week and he says New Zealand has always had a “very special place in our diplomacy”. That’s because we’ve clocked up a lot of firsts with China, including a free trade deal in 2008 and decades of careful diplomacy.
But over the last few years that relationship has changed.
On the downside, the new Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang made his first overseas visit this year. Over the last few decades that would have been to New Zealand or Australia, a soft landing for a new leader. Instead, he chose to visit Germany. A show that we are not quite the BFFs we once were.
There are still areas though where we continue to count. We matter for China as a strategic partner in the Pacific where we’re big regional players which is helpful for Beijing as it looks for influence.
Set against this pivotal role is the divide we’ve always straddled between China and our more traditional partners the US, UK and Australia. We’ve manged to stay on that tightrope but it is a bit tricky.
Because at play right now are: Human rights issues, tensions between China and the US in the South China Sea, the US President calling Xi Jinping a dictator, and small matters like Taiwan and China’s push in the Pacific.
Throw in New Zealand considering joining the second pillar of AUKUS and the war between Russia and Ukraine where China says it’s staying neutral and, well, there’s a bit on.
Chris Hipkins will have to decide during this trip which of these issues he wants to use his small political capital on.
To go back to the kiwi/dragon analogy, New Zealand has a sharp beak that could hurt but it’s nothing against the might of the fire breathing creature.
New Zealanders have an expectation Hipkins will raise human rights issues but how he chooses to do that will be interesting. There are some in diplomatic circles who think he should be less scared of raising issues with China, especially as it is starting to back away from punishing countries with trade sanctions.
These aren’t easy decisions for a prime minister entering his first real foray into diplomacy on the world stage (sorry Australia). He says he’s slightly nervous of the grand state welcomes and admits he has a penchant for Peking Duck.
But piquing the interests of Chinese consumers is really what the trip is all about. His job is to make sure the kiwi and the dragon can keep dancing together despite their differences in size, culture and military prowess.
* Jessica Mutch McKay will be reporting from China for 1News throughout the week.
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