When our prime minister’s office heard that US President Joe Biden was ditching his trip to Papua New Guinea and Australia, the news was no doubt met with a series of groans to a backing track of The Clash's Should I Stay or Should I Go.
But the truth is while it may have been tempting to do an Australia and send a minister instead, Chris Hipkins ultimately knew he had to stick to his plans and head to Port Moresby where Pacific leaders are gathering.
For a raft of reasons - not least that the optics of pulling out just because the US president isn't going any more would have been poor to put it mildly.
Papua New Guinea is hosting two big meetings with Pacific leaders on Monday, as super powers lobby and woo the region in a bid to counter China’s influence.
One is a US Pacific dialogue, that Biden has pulled out of and that New Zealand is invited to. Note, we are still waiting to hear who Biden's replacement is and whether the meeting is even going ahead now.
The other is the India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that New Zealand is not invited to.
While it would have been great to have a pre-election selfie with Biden and show the US we are allies to a point, the critical element now is the potential of a bilateral with Modi.
New Zealand has so far failed to build a strong relationship with India which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting will be the world’s fastest growing economy this year.
We know India is a valuable trading partner, but the bottom line is we haven’t put in the work to reap the benefits.
In 2020 then Foreign Minister Winston Peters fronted a NZ-India strategy called “Investing in the Relationship” but there’s been precious little investment.
In fact in terms of New Zealand’s biggest trading partners India has actually fallen from 10th in 2016 to 15th last year. And as for our exports, while we were looking at $2 billion in 2017 that’s now more than halved and Covid is not the only reason.
Australia has worked hard at its relationship with India over a number of years and it resulted in a partial free trade agreement (FTA) last year. It was a two way thing – Australia offered work permits to students after their study along with 1000 working holiday spots.
When India’s External Affairs Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited our shores last year he directly criticised New Zealand’s treatment of Indian students who were facing delays and also denials of visas following the reopening of borders.
"I urge a fairer and more sympathetic treatment for them," he said.
If you think an FTA is going to happen in the immediate future think again.
But the opportunity for a prime minister meet up in PNG can only work to New Zealand’s favour – it’s a chance to build common ground and strengthen the relationship.
It’s also a valuable opportunity for Chris Hipkins to meet Pacific leaders.
He was unable to attend the Pacific Islands Forum Special Leaders meeting in Fiji in February because of the floods so this is a good chance to build his own relationships with leaders of a region at the centre of a serious geopolitical tussle.
In the Pacific, personal relationships are everything and Australia not bothering to send its prime minister has been noted.
With so much at stake and the Pacific on the cusp of being militarised by the world’s superpowers it’s important New Zealand’s prime minister is there.
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