It doesn’t matter if he’s old and uninspiring. What matters is if he can win.
Age shouldn’t disqualify anyone from higher office.
Lucidity is a fairer measure. And anyone who has observed Joe Biden’s shuffling disposition and creaking speech will not have been left with the impression of spriteliness or vigour in the US President.
Seven out of ten Americans, including more than half of Democrats, don’t want Biden to seek another term in office according to recent polling by NBC.
The President is 80, and would be 86 at the end of a second term. More than half of voters who don’t think he should stand cite Biden’s age as a major reason.
But Biden’s announcement this week should not be viewed in isolation.
Voters in 2020 were similarly unenthused by his candidacy but, by framing the election as a referendum on Donald Trump, Biden won seven million more votes and ultimately triumphed.
In 2024, whereas Biden might lose to most potential Republican candidates, polls suggest he’s still the preferred Democrat to defy his predecessor.
And although the same NBC poll found a majority of voters also don’t want Donald Trump to run, 18 months from the election he looks increasingly likely to win the Republican nomination.
What would a Biden vs Trump rematch look like?
Unlike 2020, when he spent much of the campaign in Covid-19 lockdown, this time Biden will face greater public-facing demands. Given his demeanour, this probably isn’t a good thing for the President.
The US may be in recession and there will be even greater scrutiny given to his Vice-President Kamala Harris, who has failed to make a positive impact on voters since taking office three years ago.
At the same time though, Biden does have meaningful legislative achievements he can point to during the campaign. He passed bipartisan infrastructure law, healthcare, tax, and climate plans. He provided substantial Covid-19 economic relief and coordinated an impressive international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And if Trump is the Republican candidate, ultimately none of this stuff will really matter.
The potential timeline for Donald Trump’s campaign funds case means that Trump could be navigating a criminal trial in the middle of the presidential campaign. It’ll be an unprecedented circus.
The noise from Trump’s trial will drown out any debates over policy or visions for America. And while it might intensify Trump’s support amongst the MAGA base, it won’t ultimately change the greater equation from that of the 2020 election.
Joe Biden may not get voters to the polls. But Donald Trump will. And in an election where a majority of voters oppose both of their candidacies, Biden is betting that come next year he’ll be the best of two bad options.
As he begins to make his pitch for a second term, the President will be leaning on a phrase he wheels out all the time.
“Don’t compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative.”
It’s a stunningly uninspiring election slogan, but Joe Biden is 100% right.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter if he inspires. It doesn’t matter if he draws the biggest crowds. It doesn’t matter if other Democrats would make for more dynamic presidents.
All that matters is if he can beat Trump. And on that measure, Joe Biden has form.
* Jack Tame is a former US Correspondent and has covered the last three US elections for TVNZ.
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