The increasingly problematic role forests are playing in reducing greenhouse gasses in New Zealand needs to be urgently addressed.
That’s one of the key recommendations from the Climate Change Commission as the country continues to try cut emissions to reduce the impacts of climate change.
The Climate Change Commission today shared its proposed advice to the Government on what needs to be done to achieve the second emissions budget for the country which has already been set and will be in place from 2026-2030.
“The current pathway seems to reward sequestration in forests above gross emission reductions,” Climate Change Commission Chair Rod Carr said in a press conference.
Dr Carr said while the independent organisation is optimistic about New Zealand’s opportunities to meet emissions budgets, the country’s current policies “will not get us there”.
“We need to pick up the pace… The climate waits for no one… delay will be costly and risky,” he said.
Emissions driven by human activity warm the planet causing widespread impacts such as biodiversity and habitat loss, sea level rise and extreme weather.
The budget for long-lived gasses such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from 2026 to 2030 is 305 megatonnes of net gasses measured in the equivalent of carbon dioxide.
Net emissions means the amount of emissions after allowing for carbon removed from the atmosphere, mainly by trees.
The Commission wants to see the Government introduce a specific target for reducing total emissions, or gross emissions, in the second and third budget to ensure the country is on track for achieving our 2050 targets which include having net zero emissions of greenhouse gasses except organically caused methane and 24 to 47% less organically caused methane.
This is also important for contributing to the international Paris Agreement which set the limit for global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the Commission says in its draft advice.
Proposed recommendations
The proposed recommendations include:
- Updating the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme including the role of forestry to align with a sustainable low emissions transition
- Speeding up the roll out of electric vehicle chargers to keep up with demand
- Increasing the supply of renewable energy sources and ensuring lines companies can deal with growth
- Moving faster to help industries stop using coal and fossil fuels
- Preparing farms for change to low emission technologies and practices
- Retrofitting buildings to make them healthier for people as well as increasing resilience, operating affordability, and lowering emissions
- Avoiding new fossil fuel gas installations where there are affordable, low emissions alternative sources.
- Making public transport and physical transport like biking a lot more convenient for people
- Improving the capture of methane at landfills
- Supporting Māori to reduce emissions in industries and public settings by directly allocating resources.
Climate Change Commission Chair Rod Carr said in the draft report these recommendations are urgent and the highest priorities.
"It is in our own self-interest to reduce emissions.
"By the middle of this century, high emissions lifestyles will be less affordable and high emissions industries will be more vulnerable to disruption. We cannot go down the path of doing as little as we can or remain a high-cost producer," he stated.
He said the country needs to get on board with providing low emitting products and services as that’s what global consumers will want by the middle of the century.
On the Emissions Trading Scheme, where large businesses and/or high emitting businesses can offset their impact through purchasing carbon credits for forestry, Dr Carr said there is a "high risk" that relying too heavily on forestry for sequestering carbon will not see the reduction in total emissions that is required for the country to keep long-lived emissions at net zero (after allowing for carbon removal offsetting) beyond 2050.
He said forests have a significant and important part to play in reducing emissions but are a “tool” not a “strategy”.
"Our current actions are committing new generations to keeping land locked in forests for centuries to come," he said in the draft report.
“Every time we offset an emission with another hectare of forests, we’re committing to removing that hectare for a very long time.”
The Commission is recommending clarity on the role of forests is required, including the rates of planting and removal in the coming years, what role trees will play as the country moves to a low emissions economy and what types of trees should be planted and where.
The Government recently announced a review into the Emissions Trading Scheme.
Fast-growing exotic trees suck up carbon quicker than slower growing native trees.
But exotic forests reach their long-term carbon storage level within 20 years on average, while natives can continuing sequestering carbon for hundreds of years and have cultural and biodiversity benefits.
He said Cyclone Gabrielle was a reminder that climate change is affecting the country now.
Forestry planting to offset carbon brings with it the risk of slash, wildfires, storm damage and diseased and dying trees.
"Crucially, land will not be able to be converted into new, better uses without significant deforestation and carbon emissions," he stated.
Forestry is the country’s third largest export and employs up to 40,000 people.
It’s also important for Māori iwi business, employment and cultural considerations and the Commission says there’s a need for Māori to play an integral part in discussing the future of forests.
Between 2021 and 2035, Dr Rod Carr said the country will plant half a million hectares of forestry, an increase of 25%.
He said it’s important successive governments sign up not only for climate policy and emissions budgets but have consensus on the ongoing direction of policy to reduce uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
Dr Carr said it’s up to the public and Government to decide what happens, but if the country’s prepared to invest in forests, “we’re denying ourselves the opportunity to invest” in low emissions technology that the world is calling for.
He said that would see "dirty discounts" not "green premiums" for businesses who are doing the right thing.
The Commission is calling for submissions on the draft advice from today through to June 20 before providing the Government with its final recommendations by 31 December this year.
The Commission was established in 2020 through an amendment to climate change law to provide independent, evidence-based advice to successive governments on what actions are required to achieve emissions reduction budgets set every five years.
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