More than 2 million international visitors came to New Zealand between February 2022 and 2023 – around two-thirds the pre-pandemic figures.
But after a sharp increase through the latter-half of last year, as our borders gradually re-opened, the number of tourists coming in has plateaued.
"It's natural that you get a fast recovery," says Infometrics director and principal economist Brad Olsen.
"The fact we've made it so far (two-thirds of pre-Covid levels) so quickly really does reinforce how energetic New Zealand's tourism sector has been. It's more of a challenge to get that last little bit."
With rising inflation a global issue, he's also not surprised that will have impacted the flow of visitors.
Some businesses in the sector say they're already seeing demand up to 'normal' levels.
Walk Wellington, a tour guide company in the capital, says the past financial year has seen around 80% of 2018/19 numbers, but Friday morning's guide John Larkindale says "the last 3-4 months we're probably about close to 100%".
Eco Zip Waiheke says their summer got off to a flying start, with director Gavin Oliver saying it led to a false impression of a possible faster recovery than expected. Those expectations have now been tempered back.
"I think those forecasts that said 24 months probably are much more accurate now, but there are green shoots. We're starting to see light at the end of the tunnel."
He, and his company have backed the latest "Auckland is Calling" campaign by Tātaki Auckland Limited, targeting the Australian market.
Oliver says Australians made up 40% of New Zealand's international visitor market before the pandemic, "so they're a really important visitor cohort for us".
"Sadly we're down about 50% on where we were pre-Covid, so this campaign is really important."
But fewer tourists have led to at least one silver lining, according to industry experts.
Angus and Associates, an independent research firm, surveyed New Zealand communities for their perceptions on international tourists.
Managing director Chris Roberts says "the latest findings show that Kiwis' perceptions of international visitors is the highest it's been. It's higher than it was before Covid".
One reason, he says, is like the age-old relationship cliche that you don't realise how much you'll miss someone until they're gone.
The other is down to the reduced number of visitors compared with pre-Covid levels.
"The issue of over-tourism was a global phenomenon, and it was only just starting to emerge in New Zealand, and we were already responding to that as an industry," he said.
"In a perverse way, the pandemic took that issue off the table and we don't want it back. We've got the opportunity now as tourism rebuilds to make sure we don't repeat the mistakes of the past."
Olsen says the reduced numbers are also easier for a weakened sector to handle.
"We know that tourism businesses in New Zealand have been under a lot of pressure. They're finding it difficult to find staff, resources are stretched, so it might not be the worst thing in the world if we have a slightly lower level of tourism at the moment. It might well be a bit more manageable, and a bit more sustainable for the future."
As for where the tourism industry goes next is hard to predict, but Olsen thinks a full recovery of tourism activity is still a few years away.
"We know that for the likes of the Chinese market ,which was a big part of our international traveller group, they haven't been able to get out and about much yet – they're only just starting to trickle back through."
Airline Jetstar are providing an optimistic outlook, with a spokesperson telling 1News, "in the next 12 months, we’re expecting to fly up to 1 million people between the two countries, which is higher than pre-Covid levels."
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