MetService is tracking a subtropical low that could bring severe weather to parts of the North Island from Thursday evening, in time for the first half of Easter Weekend.
Although there is still some uncertainty on the path the low will follow, the forecaster says there is the possibility that "areas recently impacted by heavy rainfall will be affected" including Northland, Coromandel, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay.
"How close to the country the subtropical low passes will determine which areas receive the highest rainfall," MetService said.
"The path of the low will largely depend on the strength of the blocking effect from a ridge of high pressure lying across the South Island from Thursday."
Meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said the low was still "a bit hit-or-miss" but that there could be "significant" impact, including surface flooding, if the low hits.
"This rain will likely be exacerbated by thunderstorms. These can bring pockets of really heavy rain to localised areas in a short space of time, which may cause surface flooding. It could be a bit hit-or-miss, but if it hits, the impacts could be significant.
“Watches and warnings will likely be issued in the coming days, so it’ll be a good idea for people to take this time to prepare. If things pan out in this way, it certainly won’t be good news for vulnerable places still recovering from the recent severe rains."
The first signs of the low will be seen in Northland from Thursday, extending to the Coromandel Peninsula, Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay during Friday, with the bulk of the latter two regions’ rainfall occurring on Saturday, MetService said.
"Areas from Russell northwards are under a Watch starting from Thursday 6pm, which could be extended to cover a larger area depending on where the low is located."
Friday afternoon brings a temporary break in the rain over Northland, before the subtropical low brings a new wave of wet weather later that night.
That wet weather extends to the Coromandel Peninsula late on Friday, with most of it passing by Saturday night.
The eastern North Island sees that rain setting in from late Friday evening, starting in Tairāwhiti, spreading to Hawke’s Bay during the first part of Saturday, and lingering until Sunday afternoon.
Due to this uncertainty, MetService earlier outlined a number of potential scenarios for different regions.
"There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Northland and northern parts of Auckland including Great Barrier Island on Friday and Saturday, and moderate confidence for Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawke's Bay on Saturday.
"In addition, on Friday through to early Saturday there is low confidence of severe gale south to southeasterly winds for the upper North Island from Waikato and western Bay of Plenty northwards, and then for Manawatu, Horowhenua and the Kapiti Coast on Saturday."
The weather forecaster has currently issued a yellow heavy rain watch for Northland from Russell northwards, which lasts from Thursday evening until Friday morning.
"A period of heavy rain, with possible downpours. There is low risk of rainfall amounts exceeding warning criteria, but the impacts could be significant if it eventuates," MetService said.
It looks to be a wet Easter break for many, with Auckland forecast to receive rain on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Further south, Tairāwhiti may be impacted by heavy rain over the Easter break.
Yesterday MetService said there is a "low confidence" at this stage the region will be hit by heavy rain on Saturday.
Wellington may fare better over the break, with only showers forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
Dunedin and Christchurch look similarly dry, however rain is forecast to move in for the final day of Easter on Monday for Dunedin.
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