The cost of living is the issue most likely to influence the vote of New Zealanders this year, according to a new poll.
It’s led one commentator to say the October election will be “the cost of living election”, and it comes as food prices hit the biggest increase over a year since 1989, according to Stats NZ.
Food prices were 12% higher in February 2023 than they were at the same time last year.
The 1News Kantar Public poll surveyed 1002 eligible voters and found almost half - 48% - said the cost of living was most likely to influence who they chose at the ballot box later this year.
Trailing in second place, 12% of respondents said climate change was most likely to influence their vote.
That was followed by healthcare on 11%, crime on 10%, tax cuts on 5% and education at 4%.
For some, it wasn’t so clear cut - 8% indicated another issue would influence their vote, and 2% said they were unsure or refused to answer.
Economist Shamubeel Eaqub said the cost of living had gone up a lot and was "really hurting a lot of people".
"There's no big relief in sight because while international prices are coming off their peaks, they're still relatively high, so we're probably going to see things like food costs remaining quite high through the course of this year."
He said debt arrears were increasing and people coming off mortgages were particularly feeling the pinch.
"There is more pain to come and I think we're going to see politicians really respond ahead of the election."
There were two ways the Government could respond, he said.
"One is something like the fuel tax, where they've reduced it for everybody. It's not a very good way of doing it because it costs a lot of money and it doesn't really provide a lot of relief. Much better would be doing things like increasing welfare payments, increasing Working for Families and really focusing on getting money to people who need it in their back pocket."
Eaqub's comments came shortly before the Government's announcement today that it would increase main benefits, superannuation, and student allowances by the rate of inflation next month.
Former Green Party MP and political commentator Gareth Hughes said it was clear the cost of living was the “overwhelming issue on the top of minds for voters”.
“This will be the cost of living election for sure.
“People are reminded every time they go to the supermarket, fill up the tank, pay a mortgage or fix a mortgage.”
He said Labour’s 2022 cost of living payment would now be “a long time ago in voters’ memories” and the May Budget would be where voters would look for real action.
Hughes, who was no longer a member of any political party, said he was “not surprised” climate change came second, however.
“[Climate change] is no longer academic or happening at the poles of the Earth, this is something happening to people’s backyards.”
He said while crime was “still a significant issue” it was “maybe not as big as some parties have been making out”.
Hughes said voters knew now was not the time for tax cuts.
Those more likely to say the cost of living was most likely to influence their vote were women aged 18 to 34 (60%).
Groups most likely to say climate change were Green Party supporters (40%), Pasifika people (22%), Wellington region residents (20%) and Labour Party supporters (16%).
Groups more likely to say healthcare were those aged 60 to 69 (18%), while those most likely to say crime were Act Party supporters (20%), National Party supporters (16%) and men aged 55 plus.
Most likely to respond that tax cuts would have the biggest influence on their vote was men aged 35 to 54.
Between March 4 and March 8, 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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