Despite advice to the contrary from his own Cabinet, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins does not accept that the extension of the 25% cut to fuel excise taxes — announced only days after Auckland experienced first-hand the effects of climate change in an unprecedented flooding event — would increase emissions.
"I think in most cases, people will be filling up their cars, driving to work, driving their kids to school anyway," he said.
"We clearly have to continue to work to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, and transport is a huge contributor to that, but forcing people to pay higher prices for fuel that they have no choice but to buy isn't going to be the way we're going to do that."
However, Hipkins conceded he did not seek official advice to back that view.
According to a Cabinet paper from June last year, obtained by Newsroom, officials estimated the policy is expected to lead to a 1 to 2% increase in car travel while in effect.
That amounts to between 11,000 and 20,000 tonnes of additional emissions each month — a "significant" quantity, as Transport Minister Michael Wood and Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods described it.
Hipkins said allowing people to be priced out of driving is not a sustainable way to reduce emissions. He instead prefers other avenues, such as accelerating electric vehicle ownership and the half-price subsidy to public transport fares.
Although, in another cabinet paper, officials said the impact of half-priced public transport on emissions is likely to be minimal.
"Our drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is undiminished," he said. "This is dealing with a very much here-and-now challenge right in front of New Zealanders which is the cost of living."
Hipkins also denied that the upcoming general election played a role in the Government's decision to extend the fuel excise tax cut, saying inflation stayed higher for longer than expected and "we have to help families through this".
While he accepted significant climate events, such as the flooding in Auckland and Cyclone Gabrielle, play a significant role in inflation, he disagreed that the Government's fuel tax reductions would have influenced them.
Referring to the terrifying rooftop rescues that brought home to him the human cost of these recent extreme climate events, the prime minister described increased emissions as a necessary sacrifice in some urgent circumstances.
"The helicopters plucking those people off of roofs were emitting an awful lot of carbon at the same time they were doing that. I wouldn't say they shouldn't do it because it was contributing to climate change."
"We use fuel in a variety of ways that we have to accept at the moment, that is the main way we are doing things. We need to transition," he said.
Getting people in electric vehicles, switching away from coal boilers and using more renewable electricity — potentially including the adoption of new hydrogen technology, are all things the Government can do to make up the emissions gap and meet its targets, according to Hipkins.
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