New modelling from the University of Auckland shows how climate change will affect Aotearoa's surf over time.
Researcher Joao Albuquerque told Breakfast this morning that New Zealand's east and west coasts will be affected differently.
"Basically, what we found out was global warming is going to cause an increase in wave heights along the west coast and a decrease in wave heights along the east coast towards the end of the century," he said.
"This is going to be caused by changes in the wind patterns. The winds, they tend to circulate over the atmosphere with a specific pattern, and as the globe increases in temperature these patterns should change and shift slightly towards the pole.
"And this will change the wave characteristics together with the wind characteristics."
Albuquerque and his team also found that "climate change may reduce the heights of New Zealand’s waves from today’s levels in autumn and summer and increase wave heights in spring and winter", a statement from the university said this morning.
The modelling also predicted shifts in wave direction, which could have an impact on coastal erosion.
"People might just expect waves to get bigger under climate change, but the picture is a lot more complicated," Albuquerque said.
New University of Auckland research says waves on the east and west coast could look pretty different later this century. (Source: 1News)
He told Breakfast that the team looked at two different "time slices".
"The first one would be from 2026 to 2045. During this period the changes are not that strong, but as we move towards the end of the century - our second time slice that we examined was from 2080 to 2100 - and that's when the changes get more severe."
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