The World Cup isn’t the current focus for the All Blacks but the next three weeks will give an indication about where this still inconsistent team ranks in terms of their ability to survive next year’s knockout phase in France.
The 38-31 victory over Japan in Tokyo during which the All Blacks let slip an 18-point lead (just as they did against the Wallabies in Melbourne in September), does not auger well, but the true tests will come against Wales, Scotland and England because it’s here that Ian Foster and company will select their best match-day squads and likely go into “World Cup mode”.
They are already without the injured Sam Cane and Dane Coles, and with a question mark still around Brodie Retallick’s involvement on this tour after his red card against Japan (his judicial hearing will be held tonight). Lock Sam Whitelock has been confirmed as Cane's replacement as captain.
But these are the sorts of disruptions the All Blacks must expect next year as they attempt to win the William Webb Ellis trophy for the fourth time.
Over the next three weeks the All Blacks will be desperate to show that they can cope with heavyweight packs and well-connected and committed defences on consecutive weekends.
This year they failed to do that – they lost the Irish series 2-1 in New Zealand and lost to South Africa at Mbombele Stadium and Argentina in Christchurch.
They showed big improvements in their driving maul and scrum against Australia at Eden Park but the big European nations will test them over the next three weeks in areas that the Wallabies still cannot.
“We’re not thinking about the World Cup - I just think as an All Blacks squad we want to make a statement here in Europe… for us with the year we’ve had, we want to stamp the foot down and put in performances and be consistent… and be proud of that,” loose forward Ardie Savea said in Cardiff this morning.
“The way we’re training and the opportunities we’re seeing, it’s up to us players to go out there and pull the trigger.”
Cane’s absence with a broken cheekbone will leave them with a different artillery formation.
Dalton Papalii is likely to start at openside flanker, with Savea returning to No.8 after he missed the Japan Test. Shannon Frizell, who started against Japan, or Akira Ioane will likely play blindside flanker.
“It’s unfortunate to have Skip suffer his injury,” Savea said. “I wouldn’t wish that on anyone. I don’t think it will take much adjustment. I think our loosies have been around together for a while and most of us cover different roles … most of us cover two positions, so I think whoever gets the chance to play in the No.7 jersey will do it justice and do it well.
“We take a lot of confidence from the back-end of the Rugby Championship. We didn’t want to take a step backwards and start over again… obviously we got the win in Japan and today is a new day."
Canterbury and new Highlanders captain Billy Harmon has arrived as cover for Cane, with Savea also revealing that wing Leicester Fainga’anuku has re-joined the squad after leaving Tokyo before last Saturday's Test for what were described as “family reasons”.
Savea said he and his teammates were well aware of the challenge ahead and the need to find consistency.
Wales haven't beaten the All Blacks since 1953 and Scotland never have, while England's last win against New Zealand was the last time they played them - at the 2019 World Cup.
Quite apart from Ireland showing the way this year, all three home nations have the ability to put the All Blacks under pressure in front of large, noisy, and increasingly hopeful crowds.
“Playing here is bloody hard,” Savea said. “It’s tough. The atmosphere, the Welsh side, what happened last year [an All Blacks' win in Cardiff]. We know they’ll be bottling that up and wanting to come and smack us. For us it’s about building that knot in the gut through the week so when the weekend comes we’re ready.”
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