New Zealanders can expect "above average warmth" and periodic humidity from November thanks to La Niña, NIWA says.
In its latest seasonal climate outlook, which covers November to January, NIWA said the warm conditions in November may also see sea surface temperatures "increase notably".
"La Niña will have a meaningful influence on Aotearoa New Zealand's climate in the coming months," NIWA said.
On the bad weather front, early November is expected to bring a period of strong northwesterly winds and heavy rain in the western South Island.
Regional predictions
For Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty, temperatures are "very likely" - 70% chance - to be above average. More northeasterly winds and marine heatwave conditions will result in high heat and humidity at times, NIWA said.
It said there is an increased risk for dry spells, like what was experienced in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
In the central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū and Wellington, temperatures are also "very likely" to be above average, but it's a 65% chance. More northeasterly winds and warmer than average coastal seas will result in high heat and humidity at times.
Fewer westerly winds will likely increase the risk for dry spells.
For Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa, temperatures are "most likely" - 55% chance - to be above average. More northeasterly winds may lead to higher humidity levels, more cloud cover, and warmer overnight temperatures. However, fewer northwesterly winds may limit the number of hot days (above 25C).
NIWA said more frequent onshore winds could lead to more wet days - more than 1mm of rain.
In Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough and Buller, temperatures are also "most likely" - 55% chance - to be above average. More northeasterly winds and warmer than average coastal seas will result in high heat and humidity at times.
Fewer westerly winds will likely increase the risk for dry spells, particularly in Tasman and Buller, NIWA said. More easterly winds could lead to more wet days - more than 1mm of rain - in Marlborough.
For the West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago and Southland, temperatures are "very likely" - 60% chance - to be above average. More northeasterly winds and marine heatwave conditions will result in high heat at times.
NIWA said early November will feature a band of heavy rain with the potential for flooding. However, over the season as a whole, more offshore winds will likely result in extended dry spells. Low rainfall may also occur around the hydro lakes.
In coastal Canterbury and east Otago, temperatures are "most likely" - 55% chance - to be above average. Fewer northwesterly winds may lead to fewer hot days (above 25C), although more frequent northeasterly winds may contribute to more cloud cover and warmer overnight temperatures.
Frequent anticyclones may contribute to long dry spells, increasing the risk for lower than normal soil moisture, NIWA said. These may be interspersed with moisture plumes that bring rain from the north, particularly for North Canterbury.
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