Putin 'could lose power and perhaps his life' over invasion

International studies professor Robert Patman says Russian president Vladimir Putin will be feeling the pressure after his country's recent losses in the war in Ukraine.

Patman, of the University of Otago, told Breakfast this morning that Putin had "ripped up the UN charter" and faces discontent at home.

"The Russians are continually retreating at the moment, and that's very unsettling, and morale is very low within Russian ranks," he said. "(Putin) needs really to consolidate quickly. If he doesn't, he could lose power and perhaps his life because the stakes are very high.

"This is the worst crisis in Putin's 22 years in power, either as president or as prime minister of Russia."

When asked whether Putin would feel humiliated, Patman said: "Yes, I think he's finding himself in a very difficult position.

"In many respects he knows that if the military situation in eastern Ukraine continues to deteriorate - and of course, since the beginning of September, the Ukrainians have made spectacular progress ... with the current momentum, the Ukrainians are set to make further gains."

Ukrainian forces have retaken 400 square km of territory in the Kherson region since the beginning of October, Ukrainian officials reported on Thursday, and are also pressing a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region.

"Putin's making declarations about annexing but on the ground, the situation doesn't correspond to his rhetoric," Patman said. "I think there are deep signs of unease within Moscow."

He didn't rule out the possibility that Russian troops could be forced out of Ukraine by the end of the year.

"Many people have looked at the disproportion in power between Russia and Ukraine, and the size of the two countries, and drawn the conclusion that Russia can't be beaten ... A great power is basically coming worse off against a much smaller but highly motivated and well-equipped country.

"It's very difficult to predict what will happen - the so-called fog of war, the ebbs and flows of war - but the momentum is definitely with Ukrainians at the moment and you can foresee a situation where the Russian army could collapse.

"The stakes are very high for Putin and that's one of the reasons he's rattled the nuclear sabre."