The approval ratings of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon are tied, the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll reveals.
The pair both sit on +15.
Approval ratings are calculated by approval percentage, minus disapproval percentage.
Jacinda Ardern
Those polled were asked, 'Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jacinda Ardern is handling her job as Prime Minister?'
For Ardern, 53% approved, 38% disapproved and 9% did not know or refused to answer.
Ardern's approval rating was steady from January, where she also sat on +15.
In October 2020, Ardern was at +55, up from +51 in September 2020. She was on +76 in May 2020 shortly after the pandemic hit, and was on +33 in October 2019.
Christopher Luxon
Those polled were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Luxon was handling his job as National leader.
Forty-six per cent approved, 31% disapproved and 23% did not know or refused to answer.
It was down from his January rating of +22, where 42% approved, 20% disapproved and 37% either did not know or refused to answer. Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding.
In this poll, Luxon saw a sizeable 14% drop in those who did not know or refused to answer, while there was an 11% increase in those who disapproved and a 4% increase in those approved.
Compared to previous National leaders, Judith Collins was a +27 in July 2020, before falling to -31 in November 2021. Todd Muller sat at +10 for his brief period as leader.
Reaction
Commentator Brigitte Morten said the results indicated "that people are solidifying their views".
"Both on the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition in terms of where they may vote next year."
She thought Luxon now had enough time in the job "for people to feel like they know him and making their views clear".
"Similarly for Jacinda Ardern. It's a post-Covid world, she's really having to demonstrate what she's like as Prime Minister outside of that realm of crisis."
Political academic Jennifer Lees-Marshment said both leaders had work to do to win the election next year.
On Luxon's result, she said "on one hand it's good if voters are becoming more sure of Christopher Luxon, but it's obviously a downside because part of that certain opinion is actually negative".
She said the increase in Luxon's disapproval "perhaps reflects voters' sense that although Christopher Luxon is very good at voicing voters' concerns what he's been weaker on is offering any concrete solutions to them".
On Ardern, Lees-Marshment said there was "definite questions about her vision for the future".
"We're now in a very different era to 2020. Voters want ideas from both our major party leaders for how to take New Zealand forward in what are still very uncertain times. The usual old way of looking at politics isn't necessarily going to work."
Lees-Marshment said the overall poll numbers "are not particularly good for either leader" and reflected voters' dissatisfaction of how New Zealand is going generally.
Between September 17-21, 2022, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.
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