The short answer to the above question is: yes.
Why? Because seven Tests into 2022 we still don’t know whether Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is suited to Test rugby.
Given Tuivasa-Sheck won’t travel to Melbourne with the All Blacks for the Test against the Wallabies – instead he will start for Auckland in an NPC match against Waikato on Friday – and is unlikely for the return match at Eden Park, the former Warrior’s best hope now is to impress on the All Blacks' November tour.
That is, if he is included in the squad, and that remains a big if given the quality of players becoming available again such as Anton Lienert-Brown, who is nearing a return from injury.
Fullback/first-five Damian McKenzie, back after a stint in Japan, will also be pushing hard for inclusion on the northern tour, and, if the selectors are keen to continue with their first-five project Stephen Perofeta, as they should be, then the squeeze may be on.
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If Tuivasa-Sheck, an extremely high-profile convert from the NRL last year and a good performer for the Blues in 2022, does make the travelling squad then presumably his best chance of a first Test start will come against Japan in Tokyo on October 29.
This recently-added fixture – ahead of more challenging Tests against Wales, Scotland and England – may be Tuivasa-Sheck’s only opportunity of the year to stake a claim as a genuine starting midfield option.
David Havili and Rieko Ioane are the incumbents in the absence of Lienert-Brown, who has been out with an injured shoulder since April but who is now training fully again with Waikato. Jack Goodhue, the Crusader who has had a terrible run of knee injuries, is likely to remain out for the rest of the year.
Quinn Tupaea has been a solid back-up alternative, with Braydon Ennor the fourth midfielder travelling to Melbourne.
Head coach Ian Foster’s talk of “rebuilding” probably does not extend to significant changes to his midfield, especially given their recent success.
Like the All Blacks this year, Havili and Ioane have been inconsistent – in keeping, perhaps, with Beauden Barrett (four starts) and Richie Mo’unga (three) coming in and out of the No.10 jersey. But they showed during the 53-3 victory over a flat Argentina that when things are going their way they can provide a devastating attacking platform.
Lienert-Brown’s return – he has yet to play for Waikato but is fully training again – will challenge Havili’s position at second-five, but Havili showed in Hamilton that he can provide excellent kicking variation, a huge focus for the All Backs after their failure the previous week in Christchurch.
And, significantly, that’s not something Tuivasa-Sheck, a player whose main strength is his evasiveness - particularly close to the try-line - has in his bag of tricks.
He showed enough for the Blues this year to suggest he deserved an All Black call-up, but his on-pitch involvement has been limited to a cameo appearance off the bench in their third Test defeat to Ireland in Wellington.
"We're starting to see a pretty clear [picture]," Foster said of Tuivasa-Sheck recently. "He's a fast learner.
"His work from the attacking side, particularly getting involved around our forwards around the park, is something that he hasn't spent a lot of time on during Super Rugby.
"That's been taking a little while. His instincts at the breakdown are the No.1 growth point for him, and again we're seeing some really good strides in that space.
"Overall, [I'm] really, really pleased with the growth. Now it's just about waiting for the opportunity."
Tuivasa-Sheck will start for Auckland against Waikato in Hamilton after coming on as a replacement in Auckland’s recent defeat to Northland in Whangarei, but, after the series defeat to Ireland and loss to the Pumas in Christchurch, the gap between the NPC and the brutal and unforgiving business of Test rugby has never seemed greater.
And given the All Blacks’ inconsistency this year, and the finer margins that appear to be present in Test rugby, Foster would be unlikely to risk anything in Cardiff or Edinburgh in November, not to mention London.
The All Blacks haven’t lost to Wales since 1953 and have never lost to Scotland. But nothing can be assumed any longer which may leave players on the fringe such as Tuivasa-Sheck further on the outer.
In 2019 they played four Rugby Championship Tests and a warm-up against Tonga before the Japan World Cup, a schedule which may be similar next year. Time is definitely running out.
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