After all the ups and many downs of Ian Foster’s reign, it came down to 12 minutes. The final 12 minutes of the Test at Ellis Park have effectively kept the All Blacks head coach in his job.
Another way of looking at it is if his players had not come back from a two-point deficit by scoring two converted tries (the first without the sinbinned Beauden Barrett) against the Springboks the New Zealand Rugby board would almost certainly have been compelled to go for the nuclear option of sacking Foster, a move, significantly, which would have blown up the plans of at least three Kiwi Super Rugby teams.
Because had David Havili not stretched out his right arm to put the ball on the line for the All Blacks to re-take the lead and Scott Barrett not sealed it with a try from close range at the death after the Boks’ pack was effectively harassed into submission, it would have been untenable for Foster to stay.
READ MORE: Foster survives as NZR backs All Blacks coach through to World Cup
Had Richie Mo’unga not taken charge of a Test in danger of slipping away again from the All Blacks, had Jordie Barrett not become increasingly influential and had men such as Ethan de Groot (before he was replaced) and Fletcher Newell – two props not even in the squad until the week of the South African tour – not performed so well, Foster would probably be on holiday now and looking for a new job.
Instead, he’ll assemble with the team on Christchurch and prepare it for what will be an intriguing challenge against Argentina, fresh from a big victory over Australia, a week on Saturday.
READ MORE: Opinion: Mo'unga or Barrett? Old debate is live again after epic win
Board chairman Stewart Mitchell, in confirming on Wednesday afternoon that Foster was staying, stated there was always going to be a review after the first five Tests this year, and, given the All Blacks lost three in a row – including in an historic series defeat to Ireland and a clueless loss to South Africa at Mbombela Stadium - another defeat in Johannesburg would presumably have had the board pulling the trigger.
Four defeats in five would have been too much for them to accept, and all the more so when factoring in last year’s two losses on the trot in Dublin and Paris; failures all characterised by a lack of clarity on attack in the face of unrelenting but not unexpected defensive pressure.
The players could have been pleading for Foster to stay all they wanted, but it would have sounded hollow. In some cases it would have appeared like they were defending vested interests.
As it is, the senior leadership group of Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane and Ardie Savea and others saying they backed Foster 100% would have carried weight with the board, and to an extent the public and media, and those latter two “stakeholders” cannot be overlooked lightly.
The board would have recognised the way the political winds were blowing after what must be described as a surprising victory built on courage and no shortage of attacking inspiration.
So that epic victory has had far-reaching consequences. It will keep Foster in his job until the World Cup – and presumably the much-dreaded “review” word no longer applies even if the November tour of the United Kingdom goes disastrously – and it will keep Scott Robertson at the Crusaders until then as well, along with Jason Holland at the Hurricanes and Leon MacDonald at the Blues.
The latter two were highly likely to have been on Robertson’s ticket for the top job - along with forwards coach Jason Ryan, now firmly and, it has to be said, successfully, embedded at the All Blacks after significant shifts from the pack in the two Tests in South Africa.
Taking Holland and MacDonald out of their Super Rugby teams – not to mention Robertson, the most successful at that level ever - would have thrown the Kiwi element of Super Rugby into chaos at this point, and they are decisions the NZR board will be happy they don’t have to make.
There would also have been a significant financial impact of sacking Foster a year before his contract was due.
Twelve minutes was all it took for Foster to keep his job for another year; 12 minutes at the end of a Test featuring players in Mo'unga, de Groot, Newell, and to a lesser extent Shannon Frizell that until then Foster apparently didn't believe were best for the job.
The speculation is over at last, but the scrutiny of decisions made by board and head coach alike is not.
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