Opinion: Brian Tamaki needs numbers - does he have them?

Brian Tamaki wants to build a political movement, and he wants it to contest next year’s election.

Yet for much of this country’s journey through Covid, you would rightly ask how his Freedom and Rights Coalition could gain the 5% public support it needs to get into Parliament under MMP.

His supporters – anti-vaccination, anti-mainstream media, anti-government control – are certainly passionate, but based on the turnout at his recent protests, they may only number in the few thousand.

This weekend, at another rally at Auckland’s Domain, Tamaki painted a picture of a far larger support base.

He talked about people joining online from across the country, and he talked of supporters in Australia. He also reached out to others he hoped would come along for the ride. These included disaffected farmers, firefighters, and health workers, weary of red tape and poor pay; and anyone on edge over rising living costs and scared of growing crime. Where was the New Zealand they knew? The New Zealand where kids could play safely on streets? The conservative, family-friendly New Zealand of the old TV series Top Town?

The answer, Tamaki said, lay not with the most oppressive Government ever, nor with the most cowardly Opposition ever, but rather with a new political vehicle they could all join. It was there on a sign at a registration table next to the main stage: “Freedoms NZ Umbrella Political Party”. The invitation was to “make history – become a founding member”.

Tamaki told supporters four parties had “firm verbal agreements” to form a new, united entity. He said they were now working on memoranda of understanding to finalise the deal.

In an interview with 1News after his speech, he said the arrangements should be complete by late this month or early September. He would not name the parties until everything was signed and sealed, but he said the parties involved were united. He himself would not be in the party, but he sounds like he wants to help steer it.

Tamaki’s 47-minute speech, delivered without notes, was a clear attempt to position his movement as political players already occupying the same space as established parties.

He "welcomed” Labour ministers and National supporters attending the weekend’s annual conference, who he said would also be watching online. They were all, he suggested, keen to see what he, a true patriot, would say. He was no outsider then, but rather he was standing shoulder to shoulder with these other parties, vying for votes. It was a tilt at legitimacy.

Labour supporters, he suggested, must be questioning their allegiance.

“It’s not the same Labour party that my father and grandfather knew way back,” Tamaki said. “That Labour Party has been hijacked by tyrants, by bullies, by controllers, and they’ve used it to politically oppress the people of this country.”

As for National, it had not done enough to oppose Labour and so was guilty by association.

And so, during the march which followed the speech, the messaging stayed on point. A big banner at the head of the march read “Labour Must Go”. The chants called out “Labour” or “National” and the answer was “over”.

But for all the heat in the protest, it was just that: protest. A lot of time was spent criticising the establishment but there was little or no detail as to what this fledgling new movement would do to change things. Perhaps this may emerge if the new Umbrella Party comes to something, but that is not yet clear.

It wouldn't be Tamaki's first association with politics, either. Members of Destiny Church started a party in 2003 that received less than 1% of the vote in the election two years later. In 2019, Tamaki launched the Vision NZ party, led by his wife Hannah. That received 0.1% of the party vote in the 2020 election.

In the meantime, some of the rhetoric will almost certainly turn many mainstream voters away. Tamaki spoke of recently returning from Australia to be faced with strict Covid regulations at the border.

He “smelled fear” he said, and “evil restriction”, even though many border rules have been greatly relaxed.

One irony is that to pull in a wider audience, the Freedom and Rights Coalition will continue to need coverage from the mainstream media, a media Tamaki labelled “modern-day terrorists”. The media have indeed followed recent protests, incursions on motorways, and this weekend’s talk of a political party, as newsworthy events.

But without greater public shows of support, journalists may well devote less time to the movement in the future.

So the weekend demonstration contained a call to arms. Tamaki urged supporters to take part in a nationwide drive to the capital. There, if numbers supported it, he suggested the people would hold the Government of the day to account in a mock trial.

He will need a big turnout to gain any leverage with the public at large. Journalists covering this latest demonstration at the weekend suggested numbers were fewer than the previous protest a couple of weeks earlier. Tamaki needs numbers.

Right now, it’s hard to see how he’s going to get them.

Simon Mercep reported from the Auckland Domain at Saturday's Freedom and Rights Coalition event.