Omicron subvariant BA.5 is set for an "almost full takeover" in New Zealand by early August, says outgoing Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield.
In his final scheduled Covid-19 update, Bloomfield said 60 per cent of the country's cases on July 18 were the BA.5 variant, and this number was expected to "continue to increase".
However, the Director-General of Health said new overseas data showed those who had been infected with Covid-19 before could be less vulnerable to the BA.5 subvariant.
"There is international evidence that suggests a previous Covid-19 infection, in particular a previous Omicron infection, provides stronger than expected protection against BA.5 reinfection."
Bloomfield said overseas data had resulted in updated modelling which suggests case numbers are dropping - they are likely to peak at 12,000, down from a previous peak of 16,000.
Hospital occupancy was projected to reach more than 1000 occupied beds, but Dr Bloomfield says this number is more likely to sit around the 850 mark using updated data.
Under previous modelling, the "worst case scenario" was a peak of 20,000 cases and 1200 hospitalisations per day.
Dr Bloomfield says this is now "highly unlikely".
However, he highlighted the importance of vaccinations in keeping mortality rates down.
"People not fully vaccinated against Covid-19, that is, they've had less than two doses, are six times more likely to die if they catch Covid-19 compared with someone who has had at least one booster dose."
"For people under 60, this risk is even higher - more than 13 times greater," said Dr Bloomfield.
He also said it was "particularly vital" for those with underlying health conditions to get boosted.
On Wednesday there were 45 deaths reported and 8730 new cases.
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