The conservative selection in the squad of prop Karl Tu’inukuafe, along with the more radical one of loose forward Pita Gus Sowakula, makes guessing the All Blacks’ selectors’ plans for the first Test against Ireland next Saturday more difficult than usual. There may be a surprise or two, but underpinning it all should be a recognition of the form of the Crusaders.
There are a couple of reasons why. One is that the game plan which the Super Rugby champions executed so well against the Blues at Eden Park recently will be similar to what the All Blacks will attempt on the same piece of grass in a few days: that is, set piece dominance combined with breakdown aggression and an ability to strike on the counter.
The second is that players such as Leicester Fainga’anuku and David Havili, two men who may have been seen as outside chances only when the squad was announced during the week of the Super Rugby final, are in the form of their lives, with confidence presumably to match.
There are question marks in particular over the All Blacks’ left wing and second-five this week but if the selectors are reluctant to select Fainga’anuku, one of the six newcomers to the squad, in the No.11 jersey it’s difficult to understand when the time would be right.
The same applies to midfielder Havili, who was accurate and utterly committed against the Blues in the final and played with an intelligent kicking game likely to be required by the All Blacks. His experience and communication skills will also be important for Beauden Barrett, likely to get the nod at No.10.
Fainga’anuku, 22, a confident young man unlikely to be fazed by the enormity of the occasion, also has one big advantage over his left wing rival Caleb Clarke: he’s match fit. Clarke, a fellow power wing, has not played since pulling a hamstring for the Blues in their round-robin match against the Brumbies in Canberra five weeks ago.
Clarke’s Blues teammate Rieko Ioane, likely to start at centre for the All Blacks, bounced back relatively quickly from his own hamstring issue but a Test against a side which has won two of their last three encounters against New Zealand is not an ideal way to come back from such an injury.
Jordie Barrett has been carrying a knee injury but if fit he is likely to start at fullback for his ability under the high ball – and the All Blacks are sure to be tested there - long-range goalkicking, and counter-attacking threat.
That would push Will Jordan, the form Super Rugby fullback, who has quickly become an automatic Test selection, on to the right wing.
The other contentious area is blindside flanker. Akira Ioane has claims there but Dalton Papalii would be a better bet in what is likely to be a tight and intensely physical Test.
Head coach Ian Foster has signalled his willingness to look at Papalii in the No.6 jersey. His form for the Blues has been irresistible and, while he is returning from appendix surgery, he was one of his side’s best attacking weapons when he came on after halftime in the final.
George Bower, the Crusaders loosehead prop, showed again over the last couple of weeks of Super Rugby that he is one of New Zealand’s best ball-handling props and a decent scrummager too.
He was one of his side’s best against the Blues but to a man they outplayed their opponents and should be recognised for it this week.
Possible All Blacks XV for the first Test against Ireland at Eden Park next Saturday is:
15. Jordie Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. David Havili, 11. Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10. Beauden Barrett, 9. Aaron Smith; 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Sam Cane ©, 6. Dalton Papalii, 5. Sam Whitelock, 4. Brodie Retallick, 3. Nepo Laulala, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. George Bower.
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