In just over 450 days the All Blacks will play their first World Cup 2023 match in Paris, a Test that will be a frenzied red-white-and-blue extravaganza against the hosts, the result of which will (more than likely) dictate whether the visitors play Ireland or South Africa in their quarter-final.
Another significant stepping stone to that formidable challenge comes next Monday in Auckland when Ian Foster’s squad for the Ireland series is announced.
Significant because it’s self-evident there will be clues to the selectors’ World Cup thinking in the line-up because, well, perhaps Abraham Lincoln said it best: “The best way to predict the future is to create it”.
Let’s hope the selectors are brave and take risks because it has been well documented how deficient the All Blacks were last year in their defeats to South Africa, Ireland and France. Summary: a lack of forward grunt and backline penetration.
Something has to change. Fortunately for the selectors, perhaps, this year’s Super Rugby Pacific competition has again highlighted the depth of talent in this country.
The pool may not be as deep as it was when the New Zealand Under-20s were dominating all and sundry, but it remains, nevertheless.
Read more: Opinion: Marino Mikaele-Tu'u could be sudden All Black beneficiary
And I’d suggest Foster and his fellow selectors dive into it by selecting six uncapped players – three forwards and three backs - because there’s no time like the present. All six have big futures. Not every player may work out as hoped on the biggest stage, but among them are potential game changers and may even be so in September next year at the Stade de France.
A seventh, Crusaders wing Leicester Fainga'anuku, 22, is pushing hard as a power option, but Caleb Clarke may have that position sewn up. If Foster did go that way, George Bridge may be a casualty.
There are non-negotiables such as Highlanders halfback Folau Fakatava, 22; the little Tongan-born powerhouse who has won his World Rugby appeal for eligibility, and Blues midfielder Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 29, who has grown steadily throughout this season after switching from the Warriors, and, significantly, is standing tallest in his team’s biggest games.
Both will add significant value – the former as a back-up or genuine starting option alongside Aaron Smith, and the latter with his knack for finding space in defensive cul-de-sacs (and in the absence of the injured Anton Lienert-Brown), a quality the All Blacks had difficulty finding at times last year.
And a probable is Blues fullback Stephen Perofeta, 25, who has soared in partnership with Beauden Barrett this year. Perofeta is the perfect like-for-like replacement for Damian McKenzie, who is off contract and in Japan. Perofeta’s confidence is sky-high and he can kick goals from improbable angles. He deserves his shot.
Highlanders No8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 24, may have timed his run to perfection with a standout attacking performance in the recent quarter-final defeat to the Blues at Eden Park, coupled with Ethan Blackadder’s dislocated shoulder and a big question mark over the fitness of Dalton Papalii, who is recovering from emergency appendix surgery.
Which leaves us with the final two – Crusaders props Fletcher Newell, 22, and Tamaiti Williams, 21 – multi-talented front rowers the national selectors have been waiting on for years.
The pair have been carefully developed at the Crusaders under the stewardship of forwards coach Jason Ryan and their form and potential demand Foster gives them a closer look.
They are young for props at this level but they both possess a large point of difference: they're very good scrummagers who are genuine threats as ball carriers.
Both are converted No.8s so both have better than average hands and feet. And both are immensely strong; Newell, a tighthead, can squat 270kg, while Williams, who can play either side of the scrum, weighs about 145kg and stands 1.94m tall. Pianos are easier to manoeuvre.
The All Blacks once led the way in terms of producing skilful forwards, including ball-running props, but they've been overtaken over the past few years (Steve Hansen has admitted as much) by Ireland, France, England and even Australia when you factor in the momentum prop Taniela Tupou can generate for the Wallabies.
Joe Moody's injury and Karl Tu'inukuafe's imminent departure for France leaves the door open for Newell at least, but both he and Williams should be included, the latter as a promising "project" if nothing else, because the likes of Angus Ta'avao and Tyrel Lomax have had their chances.
Time to be brave. The clock is ticking.
Possible All Blacks squad of 35:
Props: Nepo Laulala, Ethan de Groot, Ofa Tuungafasi, George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Tamaiti Williams
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Dane Coles, Samisoni Taukei’aho
Locks: Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Josh Lord
Loose Forwards: Ardie Savea, Sam Cane, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Akira Ioane, Hoskins Sotutu, Dalton Papalii
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, Folau Fakatava, Finlay Christie
First-fives: Beauden Barrett, Richie Mo’unga, Stephen Perofeta
Midfielders: Jack Goodhue, Rieko Ioane, Quinn Tupaea, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, David Havili
Outside Backs: Sevu Reece, Jodie Barrett, Will Jordan, Caleb Clarke, George Bridge
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